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Spain will further savings this year and next if it is to achieve its ambitious goals of deficit reduction, since it will be in recession in 2012 and 2013 , according to European Commission forecasts released Friday.

The EC wrote in its economic prospects of the European Union biannual, that Spain should show a budget deficit of 6.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, unless you change the policies.

Madrid intends to reduce the deficit to 5.3% of GDP this year, against 8.5% in 2011 and, unless the finance ministers of the EU grant him more time to 3% in 2013, to save financial penalties. 

Even though the objective of the central government seems at hand, differences are expected at this stage for regional governments, the Commission explains in its report.

She added that the Spanish social security system is likely to remain in deficit this year due to the deteriorating outlook for the labor market.

The EU executive has revised sharply lower its forecast for GDP growth Spanish, now anticipating a 1.8% contraction in 2012, instead of 1.0% pre ; seen in February.

For 2012, the EC is planning a further contraction of economic activity, 0.3%, while the Spanish government is 0.2% growth. 

GROWTH FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013

The EC believes that Spain will be the only country in the euro area to suffer a recession in 2013. She plans for the euro area as a whole increased by 1% next year, after contracting 0.3% this year.

"The recovery is in sight but the economic situation remains fragile, with still large disparities between Member States", said in a statement the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn.

The combined fiscal deficit of the euro area would decrease to 3.2% of GDP in 2012, after 4.1% in 2011, and 2.9% in 2013.

"We're seeing an adjustment of fiscal and structural imbalances created before and after the crisis began and worsened by economic sentiment remains weak," says Rehn.

"Without new decisions energetic, low growth could persist in the EU. Sound public finances are a prerequisite for sustainable growth and, from an economic governance framework and strong again, we need to support the adjustment by accelerating the stability-oriented policies , and stimulation of growth "

. STAGNATION IN GREECE IN 2013

…… Regarding .. Greece, countries that initiated the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area and now depends on funding from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, the EC expects zero growth in 2013, after contracting 4.7% in 2012, the fifth year of recession

. The budget deficit would fall to 7.3% of GDP in 2012 after 9.1% in 2011 but, unless Greece takes further steps to further reduce the die ; deficit, it goes back to 8.4% next year. 

Portugal, which, like Greece, depends on the help of international donors, will be close to meeting its deficit targets this year and next, with a deficit of 4.7% in 2012 and 3.1% in 2013.

The Portuguese economy would suffer a contraction of 3.3% in 2012, after contracting 1.6% in 2011, then record a growth of 0.3% in 2013.

Ireland, the third countries in the euro area to take advantage of the coupled EU-IMF to grow by 0.5% in 2012, after 0.7% in 2011, and 1.9% in 2013. Its budget deficit would be reduced to 8.3% of GDP this year, after 13.1% in 2011, and 7.5% in 2013.

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The first U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase said Thursday it recorded a trading loss of two billion dollars (1.5 billion) following a failed hedging strategy, which has forced its CEO media to apologize.

Since late March, the direction of investments of the bank "has had significant market losses in its credit portfolio synthetic," said the company in a document submitted quarterly to the stock market authority, the SEC.

In the off-market transactions, JPMorgan fell by 5% to 38.67 dollars in its wake other financial stocks. 

The bank said that the gains also up for the loss of trading, which would reduce the "gap" at $ 800 million.

"That could cost up to $ 1 billion or more," said Jamie Dimon, CEO of the group, during a teleconference convened at the tope you where he apologized to analysts.

"ONE OF THE KINGS OF WALL STREET"

The loss of dollars might be less important than the reputation of the bank.

JPMorgan posted a total assets of 2,320 billion at the end of March with $ 190 billion of equity.

JPMorgan was previously considered a risk manager gifted, never having announced losses during the financial crisis. It was the bank strong enough to buy investment bank Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual Bank when they went bankrupt in 2008.

"Jamie has always been presented as one of the kings of Wall Street," said Nancy Bush, bank analyst experience. "I do not know how all this turned out so badly and so quickly given his knowledge and his risk aversion."

Jamie Dimon, called the mistakes "huge". He acknowledged that mistakes were particularly embarrassing in light of his public criticism of so-called "Volcker rule" to ban the proprietary trading at major banks.

He said he still believed in his arguments against the Volcker rule. The problem here at JPMorgan, he argues, for the performance of the hedging strategy.

The hedging strategy that failed was "inefficient, poorly supervised, poorly built and all that," said Jamie Dimon. "This violates our principles," he added.

The direction of investments is a department of the bank used for large transactions to cover this or that particular operation, such as loans to companies whose credit rating is speculative grade.

Spanish industrial production fell by 7.5% yoy in March, down significantly stronger than expected, according to data released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

Economists had expected a decline of 5.4% after falling 5.3% in February (revised).

The economic difficulties of Spain, the fourth largest economy in the euro area, recent weeks have given the debt crisis on the front of the stage.

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Carrefour has managed to stabilize its revenue in the first quarter due to sales growth in Latin America, which offset a decline in France and a sharp decline in southern Europe and Asia.

The distributor saw sales totaling 22.5 billion euros over the first three months of the year, slightly below the consensus reached by Reuters (22600000000).

As reported, net sales sign up 1.5% with a positive calendar effect and an increase in gasoline prices. But like basis and excluding gasoline, sales were virtually flat (-0.1%) and without the calendar effect, they were down 2.1%.

The group, which recently welcomed its future CEO, George Plassat – the latter will be appointed to head the company as of June 18 – and battle to regain market share in France and Europe, gives no indication of its expectations for the current year.

In the opinion of analysts, the upturn in Carrefour, which suffers from poor positioning of price, high exposure to southern Europe weighed down by the crisis as well as a format – the hypermarket – in difficulty in France, will take time and investors should be patient. 

According to those of Oddo Securities, "the year 2012 should be another year of sacrifices in terms of results" and the Group's recovery could take three or four years.

Excluding the calendar effect, sales of Carrefour in France fell 3.1% in the first quarter and those of its hypermarkets, large black dot of a number of European distribution, have accentuated their fall at -5.8%, after falling 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011.

In Europe, sales fell 3.8% on a comparable basis and excluding petrol, leaded by a plunge in Spain (-6.1%) while they increased by 8.6% Latin America and continued to fall (-4.3%) in Asia.

The country now has 4.7 million jobless. In Andalusia, the region most affected, the unemployment rate exceeds 30%. Spanish unemployed line up at an employment office in Madrid.

This is a sad record that just defeated the Spanish economy. The number of unemployed in Spain has reached the end of March to 4.75 million people. This is the highest figure since the first release of these monthly statistics in 1996.

This figure of 4,750,867 job seekers also marks the eighth consecutive month of increase in the number of unemployed. And for good reason: without its economic engine, build, Spain is no longer able to create enough jobs. The short-term economic prospects are particularly bleak for this country that has returned to recession in the first quarter of 2012. After a low growth of 0.7% in 2011, the government anticipates a decline of 1.7% of GDP over the whole of 2012.  

Today, the Spanish unemployment rate is one of the highest in the OECD. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), the rate was 22.85% of the workforce in late 2011. According to figures from the EU statistics office, Eurostat, which uses a different methodology, Spain posted an unemployment rate of 23.6% in février.En Andalusia, the region most affected country, the rate Unemployment exceeds 30% even.

The Spanish Government, these figures justify the ongoing reform of the labor market, even if it is painful. "It is necessary to recall the importance to have a framework of trust and flexibility for businesses, as one established by the labor reform," the Ministry of Employment in a statement.

But the public does not hear it that way. A sea of ​​people marched through the streets of Spain on March 29, after a general strike against the labor reform, in force since February. According to the unions, the reform will only exacerbate the scourge of unemployment, while the government itself provides for the destruction of 630,000 jobs in 2012 and unemployment at 24.3% at year end.

Labor reform is also involved along with the austerity plan intended to reduce the public deficit, which makes it even more unpopular. The government must reduce to 5.3% of GDP in the year-end deficit, after a slip up 8.51% in 2011, at great cost benefits. To do this, the government must present to Parliament a budget Tuesday of unprecedented stringency, providing 27.3 billion euros in savings.

The price per m2 of existing homes totaled at the end of January 8340 euros on average, 30 euros less than in October 2011. Prices in the Ile-de-France, for the same period were down 0.6%. This trend is not sustainable. Paris real estate. St. Pierre Semard, in the ninth.

Prices of existing homes fell slightly in Paris, in 8340 euros/m2 average for the period between November 2011 and January 2012 instead of 8370 euros/m2 previously announced Thursday night the Chamber of Notaries of Paris-Ile de France. There had been increasing since the second quarter 2009 (6020 euros/m2). The downward trend in prices began in late last year, is confirmed, indicate notaries in a statement.  

Moreover, the promise of sale entered recently, which presage the final price trends, highlight the value of apartments in the capital between 8100 and 8200 averaged euros/m2 end of May, confirming a trend slightly downward (-2 to -3.2%), after a sharp surge in prices which had led to an annual increase of 21.3% in late August 2011.

For the entire Ile-de-France, house prices in Ile-de-France, for the same period were down 0.6%. The largest decrease is observed in Seine-Saint-Denis (1.4%), while a decline of 0.3% in Paris proper.

The decrease in the number of transactions recorded for several months, was temporarily halted because of the reform leading to higher taxation of capital gains on property that, with effect from 1 February 2012, caused an influx of sales. Thus, from November 2011 to January 2012, 43,000 existing homes were sold, an increase of 6% over the same period 12 months earlier, and even 32% in central Paris.

After the records set last year, the Paris notaries had anticipated the end of February the prospect of a market downturn of the former in 2012 on the entire region, suggesting a decrease of 5 to 10% less a "new rebound of the financial crisis". But this break "will be sustainable only if new construction is accelerating sustainable in Ile-de-France for several years," had they warned. In the provinces, prices are expected to experience the same slope, according to forecasts by the INSEE.

The main European stock markets opened slightly higher on Friday after four sessions of consolidation, while the growth prospects in France were revised upwards.

In Paris, around 9:15, the CAC 40 gained 0.19% to 3,479 points. The DAX 30 is 0.3% and the FTSE ahead 0.20%. The Eurostoxx 50 is 0.22%.

Values, EADS gained 1.75%. The German government is preparing to buy 12% stake in planemaker taking over the holdings of Daimler and several private banks, it was learned Friday from the German government source.

BOLLORÉ gained 2.7% after announcing a 19% increase in operating profit.

BT gained 4.8%. The British telecoms operator plans to pay two billion pounds into its pension fund as part of a new plan more advantageous than nine years.

The French government raised its economic growth forecast for 2012 to 0.7%, against 0.5% previously, and was lowered to 1.75% for 2013, against 2.0%, said Minister of Economy Baroin.

This announcement follows the revision by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), its growth forecast to 0% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter of 2012.

Moreover, the overall business climate in France has improved significantly in March, to 95 points, an increase of 4 points, according to INSEE. 

In the U.S., the indicator of home sales in the nine will allow investors to refine their expectations of recovery in the industry and the economy in general.

Liquidity for banks has become a scarce and expensive and the interbank market will not leave en masse as the new banking standards of the Basel Committee will not be changed, said Wednesday Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of Societe Generale.

Because of concerns about the strength of the European banking system in the context of debt crisis in the euro area and more stringent prudential standards, European banks have difficulty ; refinance.

Tensions on bank liquidity were such as the European Central Bank (ECB) had to intervene twice in December and late February, to inject more than one.000 billion euros in loans to three years (LTRO) to help European banks and avoid a credit crunch.

"The world has changed considerably and perhaps even more on the liquidity of capital (.) The great lesson of the crisis is that liquidity is now chè re and much rarer, "said Frederic Oudéa at a conference at the European American Press Club in Paris.

"The interbank market, direct loans become scarce," he added.

In Europe, other bank executives emphasize that the interbank market has not returned to normal operation despite the extraordinary intervention of the ECB. 

"The liquidity is still abundant despite the funds injected by the ECB," has said Federico Ghizzoni, the Chief of the Italian bank UniCredit at a conference in Rome . "It is difficult to find financing medium and long term."

"SAFETY NET"

"The LTRO (ECB, Ed), this is a safety net (…) which allows us to give where we must pay without fear of tomorrow," he For its part, commented the head of SocGen.

Asked about the debt swap Greek and the onset of CDS, the contracts that protect an investor against default risk, Frédéric Oudéa, who is also the pre President of the French Banking Federation (FBF) found that the 'credit-default swaps "were not a" significant issue "for banks. 

"The problem of default, the organization's default, this is not so much the CDS (credit default swaps, Ed) which, after all the numbers floating around, not rep not feel a significant issue for any bank and financial system (…) the problem of financing the Greek system, "reported the director general of SocGen.

"All these figures were provided by banks as part of the exercise stress tests (stress tests) of EBA (European Banking Authority, Ed)," Has he added. 

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the organization brings together the major players in the derivatives markets, decided Friday by activating a measure requiring private creditors to take losses on their sovereign debt, Greece had triggered the payment of CDS.

The agency, however, held that payment of these CDS, estimated at some $ 3 billion, would have no significant impact on markets.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up 1.65% on Friday, supported by the success of the announced debt exchange in Greece and by encouraging statistics from China.

The Nikkei gained 160.78 points to 9,929.74 and the Topix broader, took 12.55 points (1.5%) to 848.71.

The Nikkei hit a session high at 10,007.62. This is the first time in seven months that exceeds the psychological threshold of 10,000.

Values, exporters have taken their game, Honda took 2.8%, Toyota +2.7% and 4.25% Sony.