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Despite the recession and banking sector problems, the progress made by Italy makes her a role model, according to the institution. Mario Monti.

The Director of the IMF's European Department on Wednesday welcomed in Rome "progress" made in economic reforms by the Italian Mario Monti, saying they were a "model" for Europe.

"Progress" made by Mr Monti on the last six months is "truly a model compared to progress in Europe," said Reza Moghadam, during a press conference at the end of the mission Annual Fund in Italy. According to him, "Italy is on track and has made remarkable progress over the last six months."

"It is not easy to remember that Italy was facing a very difficult and dangerous," he said, but added: "but the work is not finished. It takes more effort to encourage growth. "For his part Mr Monti also said that" much remains to be done to resolve the backlog for years and the structural weaknesses "." This is not the time of guard down, "he said

. Monti took the head of a technical government last November, replacing Silvio Berlusconi. He imposed a severe austerity to the Italians to avoid the financial strangulation in the country, awash in a huge debt. It also adopted a plan to liberalize the economy and a proposed market reform Labour, currently before Parliament

. However, the implementation of austerity measures has a significant cost: they have accentuated the recession and, by extension, the difficulties banks

.

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Spain will further savings this year and next if it is to achieve its ambitious goals of deficit reduction, since it will be in recession in 2012 and 2013 , according to European Commission forecasts released Friday.

The EC wrote in its economic prospects of the European Union biannual, that Spain should show a budget deficit of 6.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, unless you change the policies.

Madrid intends to reduce the deficit to 5.3% of GDP this year, against 8.5% in 2011 and, unless the finance ministers of the EU grant him more time to 3% in 2013, to save financial penalties. 

Even though the objective of the central government seems at hand, differences are expected at this stage for regional governments, the Commission explains in its report.

She added that the Spanish social security system is likely to remain in deficit this year due to the deteriorating outlook for the labor market.

The EU executive has revised sharply lower its forecast for GDP growth Spanish, now anticipating a 1.8% contraction in 2012, instead of 1.0% pre ; seen in February.

For 2012, the EC is planning a further contraction of economic activity, 0.3%, while the Spanish government is 0.2% growth. 

GROWTH FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013

The EC believes that Spain will be the only country in the euro area to suffer a recession in 2013. She plans for the euro area as a whole increased by 1% next year, after contracting 0.3% this year.

"The recovery is in sight but the economic situation remains fragile, with still large disparities between Member States", said in a statement the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn.

The combined fiscal deficit of the euro area would decrease to 3.2% of GDP in 2012, after 4.1% in 2011, and 2.9% in 2013.

"We're seeing an adjustment of fiscal and structural imbalances created before and after the crisis began and worsened by economic sentiment remains weak," says Rehn.

"Without new decisions energetic, low growth could persist in the EU. Sound public finances are a prerequisite for sustainable growth and, from an economic governance framework and strong again, we need to support the adjustment by accelerating the stability-oriented policies , and stimulation of growth "

. STAGNATION IN GREECE IN 2013

…… Regarding .. Greece, countries that initiated the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area and now depends on funding from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, the EC expects zero growth in 2013, after contracting 4.7% in 2012, the fifth year of recession

. The budget deficit would fall to 7.3% of GDP in 2012 after 9.1% in 2011 but, unless Greece takes further steps to further reduce the die ; deficit, it goes back to 8.4% next year. 

Portugal, which, like Greece, depends on the help of international donors, will be close to meeting its deficit targets this year and next, with a deficit of 4.7% in 2012 and 3.1% in 2013.

The Portuguese economy would suffer a contraction of 3.3% in 2012, after contracting 1.6% in 2011, then record a growth of 0.3% in 2013.

Ireland, the third countries in the euro area to take advantage of the coupled EU-IMF to grow by 0.5% in 2012, after 0.7% in 2011, and 1.9% in 2013. Its budget deficit would be reduced to 8.3% of GDP this year, after 13.1% in 2011, and 7.5% in 2013.

Carrefour has managed to stabilize its revenue in the first quarter due to sales growth in Latin America, which offset a decline in France and a sharp decline in southern Europe and Asia.

The distributor saw sales totaling 22.5 billion euros over the first three months of the year, slightly below the consensus reached by Reuters (22600000000).

As reported, net sales sign up 1.5% with a positive calendar effect and an increase in gasoline prices. But like basis and excluding gasoline, sales were virtually flat (-0.1%) and without the calendar effect, they were down 2.1%.

The group, which recently welcomed its future CEO, George Plassat – the latter will be appointed to head the company as of June 18 – and battle to regain market share in France and Europe, gives no indication of its expectations for the current year.

In the opinion of analysts, the upturn in Carrefour, which suffers from poor positioning of price, high exposure to southern Europe weighed down by the crisis as well as a format – the hypermarket – in difficulty in France, will take time and investors should be patient. 

According to those of Oddo Securities, "the year 2012 should be another year of sacrifices in terms of results" and the Group's recovery could take three or four years.

Excluding the calendar effect, sales of Carrefour in France fell 3.1% in the first quarter and those of its hypermarkets, large black dot of a number of European distribution, have accentuated their fall at -5.8%, after falling 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011.

In Europe, sales fell 3.8% on a comparable basis and excluding petrol, leaded by a plunge in Spain (-6.1%) while they increased by 8.6% Latin America and continued to fall (-4.3%) in Asia.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 0.81% on Friday, falling for the fourth straight session and recording its worst week in eight months, amid concerns facing renewed ; the European crisis of debt and lack of signs of new measures to support activity in the United States.

Volumes were thin due to the closure of many markets around the world for the Easter holiday and investors were cautious while awaiting the monthly U.S. unemployment figures.

The Nikkei lost 79.16 points to 9688.45 points. The Topix broader, yielded 6.86 points (0.82%) to 825.71 points.

"The very optimistic view of the U.S. economy has already been considered by the markets. We can not expect further monetary easing by the Fed, "said Ryota Sakagami for Nikko Securities SMBC

." On the other hand, we see the uncertainty on the front of the European crisis of debt, and general elections in Greece and the presidential election in France will only fuel the uncertainty. "

Ryota Sakagama said he expected that the Nikkei is maintained above 9,000 points, but that its correction will continue until the end of the month or until mid-May, when Japanese companies unveil their profit forecasts for the current year

…… At values ​​…, Toyota Motor lost 2.02% on profit taking. The action is up over 30% since the beginning of the year.

The stronger yen against the euro also weighed on exporters. Canon sold 1.03%, Panasonic and Sony 1.79% 2.04%.

Liquidity for banks has become a scarce and expensive and the interbank market will not leave en masse as the new banking standards of the Basel Committee will not be changed, said Wednesday Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of Societe Generale.

Because of concerns about the strength of the European banking system in the context of debt crisis in the euro area and more stringent prudential standards, European banks have difficulty ; refinance.

Tensions on bank liquidity were such as the European Central Bank (ECB) had to intervene twice in December and late February, to inject more than one.000 billion euros in loans to three years (LTRO) to help European banks and avoid a credit crunch.

"The world has changed considerably and perhaps even more on the liquidity of capital (.) The great lesson of the crisis is that liquidity is now chè re and much rarer, "said Frederic Oudéa at a conference at the European American Press Club in Paris.

"The interbank market, direct loans become scarce," he added.

In Europe, other bank executives emphasize that the interbank market has not returned to normal operation despite the extraordinary intervention of the ECB. 

"The liquidity is still abundant despite the funds injected by the ECB," has said Federico Ghizzoni, the Chief of the Italian bank UniCredit at a conference in Rome . "It is difficult to find financing medium and long term."

"SAFETY NET"

"The LTRO (ECB, Ed), this is a safety net (…) which allows us to give where we must pay without fear of tomorrow," he For its part, commented the head of SocGen.

Asked about the debt swap Greek and the onset of CDS, the contracts that protect an investor against default risk, Frédéric Oudéa, who is also the pre President of the French Banking Federation (FBF) found that the 'credit-default swaps "were not a" significant issue "for banks. 

"The problem of default, the organization's default, this is not so much the CDS (credit default swaps, Ed) which, after all the numbers floating around, not rep not feel a significant issue for any bank and financial system (…) the problem of financing the Greek system, "reported the director general of SocGen.

"All these figures were provided by banks as part of the exercise stress tests (stress tests) of EBA (European Banking Authority, Ed)," Has he added. 

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the organization brings together the major players in the derivatives markets, decided Friday by activating a measure requiring private creditors to take losses on their sovereign debt, Greece had triggered the payment of CDS.

The agency, however, held that payment of these CDS, estimated at some $ 3 billion, would have no significant impact on markets.

Greece has avoided uncontrolled bankruptcy by obtaining the agreement of a substantial majority of its private creditors to restructure its massive debt, paving the way for a second loan installment of its donors. The agreement was welcomed Friday by all European leaders. Their reactions to images. Seventh

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Portugal hopes that an increase in exports of wine, cork and fruit will help reduce its trade deficit, said Monday the Portuguese Minister of Agriculture in an interview with Reuters.

Assunção explained Cristas want to restart the operation of unused land while providing incentives that would turn the trade deficit in food surplus.

Portugal is already the world's largest exporter of cork and the seventh largest exporter of wine. Its agriculture, which includes logging and the production of many varieties of fruits, olives and oranges through the strawberries and cherries, represents 10% of its gross domestic product.

But the fertility of its land and its mild weather did not permit him to achieve food self-sufficiency.

Production of the sector remains fragmented mainly because of the small size of many farms, inheritance of land reform following the Carnation Revolution of 1974 after decades of Salazar dictatorship.

Came to power last June in favor of early elections, the majority center-right led by

Pedro Passos Coelho hopes to reverse. 

"Our food exports have great potential even though we still have a trade deficit of 30%," said Assuncao Cristas Reuters.

If he succeeded in transforming its trade deficit in food surplus, Portugal could hope rebalance its overall trade balance, which would be of great help when he e ty forced last year to accept international assistance of 78 billion euros.

In 2011 already, the Portuguese trade deficit narrowed by 25% over the previous year to return to 15.2 billion euros.

This reduction is mainly due to the austerity measures imposed on the Portuguese with its implications on domestic demand. 

Meanwhile, food exports rose 17% last quarter 2011 to 1.2 billion euros. This increase is the second largest after the one recorded on refined petroleum products.

"The prospects for improved trade balance in the food are good, we planted lots of new land, for example, olive groves and vineyards," said the Minister of Agriculture.

"The food industry (…) can really help Portugal when domestic consumption is low."

According to forecasters, the Portuguese economy expected to contract 3% this year and the unemployment rate has hit a record 14%.

The Japanese Panasonic announced Friday include a record annual net loss of almost eight billion euros for the 2011-2012 fiscal year, due largely to the decline in demand for TV sets in a highly competitive environment.

For the year ending in late March, the maker of consumer electronics forecasts a deficit of 780 billion yen (7.8 billion euros). The market was expecting before the revised forecast a deficit of 470 billion yen, according to ThomsonReuters I / B / E / S.

Rival Sony said Thursday expect an annual loss of 220 billion yen (2.2 billion euros), almost twice more than expected by the market, highlighting the extent of tâ ; che the new boss of the group, Kazuo Hirai.

For the quarter October-December, the third year, the net loss of Panasonic amounts to 197.6 billion yen. The market was expecting a net loss of 8.4 billion yen.

The action Panasonic has dropped by 45% over the last 12 months. Thursday, she finished her read down for over 30 years.

The European debt crisis continues to take its toll on both European and U.S. stock markets, the risk of contagion to the entire euro area, resulting in a rise in bond yields to unsustainable levels and that affects more only countries known as "devices".

"The market remains concerned about the implementation of these measures (austerity and anti-crisis), which are not detailed enough to be credible," said Emmanuel Cau, strategist at JPMorgan Cazenove,.

In Paris the CAC-40 ended on a loss of 1.78% to 3,010.29, surpassing those of his peers.

The deterioration of the Spanish note and doubts about the French note resurface critics are against the rating agencies. Decryption in four points. Moody's in New York.

Rating agencies are again talking about them. After the decision by Moody's to consider placing the French note on negative watch, the issue of their decision-making arises. Back to agencies in four points.

How Does it take decisions?

This is the work of two people in the agency, "managing director" and the analyst in the country studied. They bring together a panel of several analysts (5 to 12 people), and a majority vote following a debate on the prospects of the country. The evaluation criteria focus on four principles. First results with the economic analysis of per capita GDP.Then they evaluate the level of indebtedness of the country with the analysis of public debt relative to national wealth. Third criterion, political strength of a country, a test that was particularly important when Standard and Poor's downgraded the United States in battle between Democrats and Republicans. Finally the agency is studying the history of default of the country. "Their decision is not from a macroeconomic model as is the case for the projections of the ministries or central banks. This is more of a qualitative opinion.Countries are alerted to the decision a few hours before it was released, "said Bertrand du Marais of the University of Nanterre on Slate.

Read: Why France must not lose its triple A

France, she deserves to be degraded?

Moody's decision to consider the placement of the note falls under supervision of course, not abuse. The situation of public accounts in France is worrying. With debt levels at 1.692 trillion euros (86.2% of GDP), Paris is – the 17 countries rated AAA by Moody's – one of the states with the most fragile public finances. The United States, degraded this summer by Standard and Poor's are worse (100%) but investors remain attracted by the U.S. debt. Furthermore, the primary deficit of France off the debt burden reached 3% of GDP, far more than its neighbors triple A rated, the Netherlands (1.6%) and Austria (0.5%).It is these figures that the agency emphasized. Moody's said the financial strength has "weakened (…) because the economic and financial crisis worldwide has led to a deterioration in its debt ratios that are among the most vulnerable countries rated AAA." That said, nothing to panic about the likely reduction of the note according to Alexandre Delaigue, an economics professor at Saint-Cyr and co-author of the blog econoclaste. "Overall, the consequences (a degradation) would be minimal because in fact the creditors have already as if France had already lost its best."

Also read: What I really want the rating agencies

And also: Credit rating agencies for Dummies

Why do we critique always agencies?

For several reasons. First, because they have made many mistakes in the past.After controversy over the rating of companies, including Enron, they were accused of having had a major responsibility in the crisis of suprime, giving the maximum for certain financial products that eventually led to the financial crisis. Moreover, they were criticized for their lack of transparency about the products noted. A former employee of Moody's recently revealed that some banks had withheld information to be rated by these agencies.

Today's critics include on Moody's. The agency would degrade too quickly some states. "Moody's has totally missed the Greek crisis and the subprime crisis. We realize that with Italy and Spain it is trying to change this image agency late. But it is clear that it is too brutal "said Norbert Gaillard, author of" rating agencies ".

How to reform?

Europe has raised the idea of ​​creating a European rating agency. The goal is to break the virtual monopoly of the three agencies, Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. But it would not address the accusations of bias, is Gunther Capelle-Blancard, professor at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and Deputy Director of CEPII. "The doubts about its independence would be very strong. The proof now European leaders are trying to put pressure on agencies that do not have the figures for Greece in such a negative." Norbert Gaillart advocates for its intervention by the European Central Bank. "The ECB should be the sovereign rating. It would do this based on his notes to her and this would allow it to be more independent rating agencies."

Read also: The European rating agency, such a good idea?