Posts Tagged ‘might’

15
May

Banks to withstand worst-case Greek, says ACP

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Banks and insurance companies French are able to cope with a possible exit of Greece in the euro area, said Monday the Prudential Control Authority (ACP).

While the markets are worried that the Hellenic Republic is forced to leave the eurozone because of the political impasse in which it is located since the legislative elections, Christian Noyer, the pre President of the ACP group explained that no French financial difficulties would set if this scenario were to occur.

Asked whether French banks and insurers could resist such a scenario, Christian Noyer, who is also governor of the Banque de France and member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank ( ECB), said: "My answer is yes."

" I know of no group that would be put in difficulties by an extreme scenario of Greece, "he said at a press conference to present the 2011 CPA report

. He also recalled that French banks, which are among the foreign banks most exposed to Greece, had provisioned the Greek sovereign debt they hold in their account up 75%

. The European Commission said Monday hoped that Greece remains within the euro area, while requesting new exhibitions ; ties to honor its commitments

. Everywhere on the planet, however, banks are preparing to work with a new currency in greece. 

In France, Credit Agricole, is particularly vulnerable to Greece because of its local subsidiary Emporiki, has also said on Friday prepared for all eventualities.

"The risk is virtually no longer supported by the private sector which has already funded a large part of Greek debt," said Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays Exchange. "The Greek debt is essentially supported by the European states."

"Meaningless"

The CPA also pointed at his press conference that French had since the crisis strengthened their financial strength and they now showed capital ratios "hard "(so-called 'core tier one') above 9%, above the requirements of the European Banking Authority (EBA).

Asked about the risks of contagion from the debt crisis in the euro area and on the budgetary situation of Spain, Christian Noyer said that no other European country was in "a situation comparable to Greece."

"Assimilating Spain to Greece is meaningless," he insisted. 

The ACP also said that the government sought a "permanent solution" to the Credit Immobilier de France (CIF) including the ability to refinance on the markets would be put to the e ; evidence in case of deterioration of its rating by Moody's.

Finding that the mortgage specialist had a solvency situation "very satisfactory", Christian Noyer has nevertheless recognized that the model of organization and activities of the CIF-oriented refinancing markets, had become "difficult to manage" because of the financial crisis in the euro area. 

According to Les Echos, the British bank HSBC was mandated to find a buyer at the ITC which several bond saw their listing be suspended early last week.

21
Mar

France has become any less attractive?

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Creations or extensions to sites in France by foreign companies fell 11% in 2011. And the number of jobs created or saved has never been this low since 2003. But the overall picture of the attractiveness of France is far from negative. Changes in the number of foreign investment projects in France since 1993

At first glance, foreign investment has slowed down in France in 2011. 698 with the creation or extension of sites by foreign companies, foreign physical investments in our country have indeed decreased by 11% compared to 2010. And the number of jobs related dropped from 12% to 27,958. But the French Agency for International Investment (IFA) sees nothing to worry about.

These figures indicate it believes that France "did better than resist" in a difficult environment. In many projects, this is indeed the second best performance since ten years. And 17% of total European or second only to Great Britain. The Minister of Economy Baroin has meanwhile stressed that it was comparable to a 2010 "outstanding" and "recovery" after the 2009 crisis.

President of the IFA, David Appia, however, recognizes a small air pocket. "The sovereign debt crisis has affected the last quarter of 2011," causing "some restraint of foreign companies" some of which have postponed their investment decision, he said. But this decline would, however, more noticeable today. In other words, the attractiveness of France would not be threatened.

In fact, the amounts invested in France have increased by 18% to $ 40 billion last year, according to preliminary estimates by UNCTAD. This won him to occupy the 10th place worldwide, behind the United States (211 billion), China and Hong Kong (202 billion) or the UK (77 billion). Countries such as Brazil, Ireland, Russia and Belgium are also ahead. But not Germany (only $ 32 billion). Note that the figures for the Unctad include purely financial transactions such as mergers and acquisitions. The Afii, she focuses on physical investment.

Fewer new jobs

The most negative, finally, for job creation by foreign firms. For less than 28,000, France returns to the average for the period 1993-2011. A decrease is explained by the proliferation of small projects, the increasing share of projects in the software field (sector No. 1 selected by foreigners), relatively less intense in job creation, and by prudence investors in a difficult environment. A caution which reads in the fact that extensions of existing sites have tended to grow last year at the expense of setting creations.

Finally, foreign investment in France last year were the result of SMEs (28%) of intermediate-sized firms (34%) and large companies (39%). And they came, in overwhelming majority of developed countries: 60% from Europe, 25% in North America and 11% Asian. Four countries, Germany, the United States, Italy and Switzerland, were responsible for over half (52%) of these investments.

Particularly positive in the debate on the made in France, they focused on activities with high added value or high-tech and concerned for two-thirds the manufacturing sector (including machinery and mechanical equipment).

According to a poll published in parallel by the IFA, France would be considered attractive by 66% of international business leaders interviewed. A proportion that rises to 87% in China and 94% in India. Paradox as investments from BRIC countries, are among the most active in terms of direct investment abroad, are still a small minority. Only 6% of projects in France in 2011. This is particularly regrettable that apparently, once installed, the foreign bosses are even more convinced of the attractiveness of our country trusted by 82% of them.

29
Feb

Vinci will make an offer for Turkish TAV

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Vinci said Wednesday a tender offer in the coming days for a minority stake in the Turkish airport operator TAV Holding Havalimanlari, why Aéroports de Paris also on the ranks.

The sale of a stake of up to 40% should value TAV, which manages several airports in Turkey, including Istanbul, more than two billion dollars (1.5 billion euros), according to sources familiar with the matter.

"Vinci confirms that an offer will be filed in the coming days," said a spokesman for the world leader in construction and concessions.

According to a source familiar with the matter, Vinci is best placed ADP.

"Vinci should win the deal on TAV, said this source. Vinci and ADP present their bids early next week. "

It would be the second failure in a row e abroad for ADP, which lost early February the call for tenders for the modernization of the Brazilian airport of Sao Paulo Guarulhos in favor of a trio of groups Brazilian and South African

. Another source however said that the games were not made in Turkey, stressing that supply of ADP is probably much higher than Vinci. 

But the source said, ADP, which the French state owns 52% stake, was forced to offer a higher price as a result of the anger in Ankara by the law criminalizing denial of genocides recognized by France, including the Armenians by the Turks in 1915.

ADP, which last week confirmed his interest in TAV, did not wish to comment.

22
Feb

High labor costs does not mean unemployment

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High labor costs does not rhyme with high unemployment and does not necessarily mean poor economic performance, according to a study by INSEE Wednesday in the time left and right clash violently on the "social VAT".

The Department of Labor will release the unemployment figures Friday of January. End of 2011, the number of unemployed people on French territory, all regions and categories, exceeded 4.5 million, its highest since 1999.

Across the Rhine, the unemployment rate last month was at its lowest level since reunification in 1990.

Labor costs in Germany was also one of the highest in Europe in some industries four years ago, an economic fact that has not prevented e to view the best export performance of the euro area and an unemployment rate among the lowest in the Old Continent. 

At two months of the first round of presidential elections, the government, which regularly cites Berlin as an example, has made the reduction of labor costs one of its priorities é ; ECONOMIC by deciding to reduce employer contributions in exchange for a higher rate of VAT, a measure criticized by unions and the opposition who fear a degradation of power purchase.

In a study entitled "Employment and Wages", especially on the evolution of the price of labor in Europe, INSEE found that the cost of labor in some sectors Manufacturers across the Rhine was the highest in the Old Continent. 

"This is particularly true in the automotive industry, where (in 2008, ie) it is 29% higher than that observed in France: 43.14 EUR (per hour) against 33 , 38 euros. "

Across the industry, labor costs were substantially similar in both countries, around 33 euros per hour on average, although it was higher Germany (33.37 euros) and France (33.16 euros).

REPORT OF FORCE?

However, the trend reversed in services where France four years ago recorded an hourly labor costs of 32.08 euros against 26.81 euros in Germany. 

Especially, unit labor costs as a whole rose a much stronger in France than in Germany between 2002 and 2012 (1.9% per year against 0.1%) and lower gains productivity (+0.8% against +1.2%), as calculated by the Credit Agricole, a cause for concern for Paris.

The budget minister Valérie Pécresse has reiterated Tuesday that lower labor costs in the name of "price competitiveness" French would create between 75,000 and 120,000 jobs, provided that businesses play the game and favor the recovery of productive investment to increase their margins.

Sweden, Denmark and Belgium are the three countries of the European Union where, in 2008, the labor cost was highest in the industry as in services. Portugal, Greece and Spain are where it was lowest.

Therefore, improving the "competitiveness" could have effects far less positive than expected if it would only cover costs without concern more widely in productivity, quality ;, innovation and training.

Secretary of State for Foreign Trade Pierre Lellouche logically touted the creation of social VAT in early February and found that France could balance its trade with by 2017, after showing a record trade deficit in 2011. 

In the hope of improving the productivity of French companies, the government gives one month to the social partners to agree a framework for agreements "majority" in companies on issues relating to working time, organization or overtime.

Nicolas Sarkozy stressed that such agreements would be binding on the law, which bury the de facto 35 hours. Without compromise, a bill would be tabled in Parliament at risk to engage the executive in a tense power struggle on the eve of presidential and parliamentary elections.

18
Feb

The CEO of L'Oréal wants to eliminate stock options

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The CEO of the French cosmetics group L'Oreal, Jean-Paul Agon, announces its intention to cancel within the group's system of stock options in an interview with Journal du Dimanche in ; appear Feb. 19.

"Stock options pollute the debate. That's why I'm going to give up half of the stock options were granted to me in 2010, "says Jean-Paul Agon, who won 10.7 million euros in 2010 (including options and shares) according to the annual report published on February 14 Proxinvest

. "(Of the 400,000 stock options received 2010), I will keep 200,000 to share a dynamic performance with our shareholders, "the French boss highest paid in the CAC 40 in 2010 in the interview excerpts of which were published on the newspaper's website Saturday

. "And in April, I will propose to the Board a complete halt of the system of stock options L'Oreal, for everyone and this year. "

Instead of stock options which benefit coefficient to 2.300 people in the group, the CEO of the world's number one cosmetics, had already relinquished his stock options in 2009, wants to establish a system of performance shares.

"After four years of house, our managers will receive bonus shares if the company met certain performance criteria. It is more transparent and less random," he says.

Asked about executive compensation in large groups, he said: "The public interest is not to lower wages, but business leaders have a tax system that generates more redistribution. I fully assume my signature to the call of the Nouvel Observateur to pay more taxes. "

Sixteen heads of major French companies signed in August in the columns of a weekly call for the establishment of an "outstanding contribution" of the French the most favored reducing government deficits they believe threaten "the future of France and Europe"

.

07
Feb

China refuses to pay the tax European Carbon

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China has banned its airlines to pay tax on emissions imposed by the European Union since January 1. His opposition joined the United States, India and Russia. An airplane of American Airlines lands on the tarmac at the airport in Port-au-Prince in February 2010.

For the Chinese government, no question of paying tax on pollutant emissions: a tax imposed by the EU to reduce global warming. The Chinese government's message is clear: "No Chinese airlines to participate in the EU ETS" taxes on carbon emissions "without permission from government authorities," and adds that they are also forbidden to raise their rates to offset the cost of the European measure.

The EU ambassador to China, Markus Ederer, defended the tax, but said Monday that negotiations could take place. "There are several possible ways, bilateral, multilateral or perhaps legal," he told a press conference, implying that a solution for Chinese companies could be paying a carbon tax in China. "We are ready to discussions on equivalent measures that would exempt companies from the countries concerned" the payment of the European carbon tax, he added. "We are witnessing a struggle between the EU and China on this issue. You have to see if China will not soon take retaliatory measures", for its part has responded to AFP Yanyan Luo, an analyst at China Merchants Securities based in Shenzhen (south).

In China, the European law will cost 800 million yuan (97 million) in 2012 to its airlines, and this cost will be multiplied by four in 2020. When asked about the tax by AFP, companies China Eastern and China Southern have refused to comment Monday. Worldwide, airlines encrypt the extra cost of the measure for the sector to € 17.5 billion over eight years. The European Commission for its part argued that the additional cost per ticket for a long haul flight would return between 4 and 24 euros only. By this law came into force on 1 January, the Europeans want to force all airlines, irrespective of their nationality, to buy the equivalent of 15% of their CO2 emissions, or 32 million tonnes. The objective is to fight against global warming. But the arguments of Europeans objected to by 26 of the 36 members of the Aviation Organisation (ICAO), including the United States, China and Russia. They adopted early November a nonbinding resolution recommending to exempt foreign companies from the EU carbon tax.

Going further, the House of Representatives in the United States passed a bill prohibiting U.S. airlines to pay this tax, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had asked the Europeans to suspend the entry into force . U.S. companies complain of a discriminatory measure and have filed an appeal in Britain, but their arguments were rejected by the European Court of Justice.

In early January, China said it would not cooperate with the EU to implement the tax that had just come into force and had hinted at retaliation. By the end of last year, the China Air Transport Association (CATA), which brings together most Chinese companies had indicated that "Chinese companies would not participate in the ETS, would not provide carbon monitoring plan to EU countries and would not negotiate preferential policies with the European Union ".

Companies refusing to pay the tax could be imposed a fine of 100 euros per tonne of CO2 or, in extreme cases, be denied landing rights in the 27 EU countries. But carriers have a period, because if the law is already in force, they can buy their license right to pollute for 2012 until April 30, 2013, and no sanctions will be applied before that date .

01
Feb

Increase in sales of Ford and Chrysler in the United States, decreased GM

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Chrysler saw its car sales in the U.S. jump 44% in January, thanks to his Jeep, while his great rival General Motors has lost ground. Chrysler sales have far exceeded the expectations of some analysts who had forecast an increase of 35%, confirming the return unlikely the smallest U.S. automaker, three years after depo t balance. By contrast GM, the largest U.S. carmaker, has announced a 6% drop in sales in its home market last month, while Ford Motor saw sales increase by 7% over the same period, supported by the success of its Focus small cars, whose sales rose 60%. So far, January sales are part of an annual rate of 13.7 million for the entire market, exceeding the target of 13.5 million some analysts. These sales are increasing, even as automakers limit the financial incentives, which was their primary strategy before the restructuring of 2009. "The days when we were looking at any price to gain market share is over and most manufacturers are focusing on what is really important, ie on profitability," TrueCare says analyst Jesse Toprak. 11 years average age for GM, which sold 167,962 vehicles, the market was expecting a decline of 9% compared to January 2011, when the group had made offers. The group expects a car market in the United States between 13.5 and 14 million units in 2012, while the American branch of Volkswagen, for its part provides a market of 13.7 million over the year. Aging cars, which are now reaching a record average age of 11, promote the increase of new car sales, U.S. households back on the market after having postponed their purchases during the crisis. Ford, No. 2 in the U.S., sold 136,710 cars, up slightly behind the expectations of some analysts polled by Reuters. VW and Nissan Motor Co also announced an increase in sales in the U.S. market. VW's sales rose 48% to 27,209 vehicles, supported by the arrival of its Passat sedan, and Nissan rose 10.4% to 79,313 units. During a conference call, Jonathan Browning, director of VW in America, estimated that U.S. consumer confidence improved, but not at a steady pace. Chrysler released Wednesday its first annual profit since 1997. The group was No. 4 in sales in the U.S., behind GM, Ford and Toyota. Sales of Toyota in the U.S. rose 7.5% in January to 124,540 units. By 1900 GMT, the GM shares gained 1.54% to 24.39 dollars while Ford lost 0.64% to 12.34 dollars while the S & P 500 advanced 1.15%.

19
Nov

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This former railroad 55 years succeeds Jacques neighbor to the presidency of reformist union.

Louis Philippe, 55, Friday officially took the presidency of the CFTC, at the end of the 51st Congress of the Confederation of Christian, the union announced in a statement. Pascale Cotton, 47, including the issue of pensions specialist, became general secretary of the CFTC and Bernard Sagez treasurer.

Elected for three years, Louis Philippe, a former railroad worker in Alsace, succeeds Jacques Voisin, he was number two. The office has also confederal three Vice-Presidents Jean-Louis Deroussen, Michel and Joseph Thouvenel Coquillion and a deputy secretary-general Pierre Mencas. At this congress, the CFTC voted to maintain its independence and its Christian values ​​despite the law of representation that darkens the horizon.

"The CFTC because it is meaningful and that can provide the link to our society's social cohesion that is lacking becomes itself a credible solution for the workers and their families," argued Louis Philippe ended Congress.

18
Oct

A triple threat of France

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Moody's is given three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" on "AAA" tricolor is still justified. The rating agency said that financire the financial strength of the French government has weakened. The Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin presented Wednesday, September 28 in Council ministresle of the state budget for 2012.

The rating agency Moody's Investors Service gave the first Monday penknife to the sacrosanct "AAA" rating of France, announcing that it gave three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" was still justified in view of the deteriorating economic situation."Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and evaluate the stable outlook (the note of the country) in the light of progress made by the government to implement" the measures announced to reduce the budget deficit, said the agency rating in a statement.

France has currently the highest rating possible from Moody's (a "Aaa"), as from its main rival Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. This high rating allows it to borrow on the markets in very favorable terms to finance its budget deficits. If the prospect of this note should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely reduce the medium-term (usually for a term of three to twelve months).And France would become the new big country, after the United States to lose the precious talisman financially.

The agency is careful to note that this review is part of its annual study on the accounts of France and that it is not – at this stage – a decision on the note country. But it is the first of three major rating agencies and to cast a shadow on the "Aaa" French. Last week, Moody's had yet to confirm the strength of the French note, after the announcement of the restructuring of the bank Dexia.

Keeping the promise of deficit reduction

In addition to the ability of the French government to meet its budget commitments, Moody's says it will consider in its deliberations "new negative developments in the economy or financial markets."In its statement, Moody's notes that the financial strength of the French government, although still very high, "has weakened, as is the case for other countries in the euro area, as the economic and financial crisis in the world has led to a deterioration in its debt ratios, which are now among the lowest rated countries Aaa + + ".

For Moody's, so it is "crucial" for France to maintain "investor confidence in its ability and willingness to deal with unforeseen challenges."Or "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months – such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase so significant commitments that must support the country's budget, "said Moody's.

"The deterioration of debt ratios and the ability to see new potential liabilities are putting pressure on the prospect of stable rating Aaa + + of the country," said the agency. For Moody's, the French government now less room for maneuver in 2008 (…) "during the crisis of" subprime "." The continued commitment to implement economic reform measures and budgetary and visible progress in the goals "for reducing debt" will be important for maintaining the stable outlook "of the note of the country, the agency warns.

23
Sep

The fear of a recession driven down Scholarships

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Equity markets fell to a low of 13 months Thursday, signs of slowdown in the industrial sector in Europe and China fueling fears of recession in the wake of alarming economic outlook given by the Federal Reserve of the United States.

Faced with the loss of investor confidence, the dollar, especially U.S. Treasury bonds, have emerged as the ultimate safe haven.Gold fell to the contrary.

The MSCI world equity index fell 4.5%, which pore its losses to 16% since the beginning of the year.

The three major indexes on Wall Street fell for the fourth straight session, as volume expanded to 13 billion shares traded.

The Dow Jones lost 3.51% or 391.01 points at 10,733.83 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500, part of fund managers, fell by 3.19% or 37.20 points, to 1129.56 points, after a moment passed down the line key 1,120 points. The Nasdaq Composite has given 3.25% or 82.52 points to 2455.67 points.

The CAC 40 index fell 5.25% to 2781.68 points, in a transaction volume of 4.27 billion euros.The day ended with a loss of over 40 billion euro market capitalization only on the values ​​of the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse.

The London Stock Exchange lost 4.67%, the Frankfurt and Milan 4.96% 4.52%.The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index dropped 4.9%.

The Fed on Wednesday raised "significant downside risks" to the economy of the United States, before announcing an "Operation Twist" 400 billion dollars to bring down long rates, and support activity.

But Wall Street estimates that only 15% chance that the "Operation Twist" gives a real boost to the U.S. economy, according to a Reuters poll of primary dealers of Treasury.

EURO, GOLD AND OIL DOWN

Fears of a relapse of the global economy have intensified Thursday with the contraction in private sector activity observed in the eurozone and in China and in the absence of affirmative action in economic from the political leaders .

"Investors realize that one side, the economy slows down and across the developed countries like the United States and Europe have more and more difficult," said Michael Sheldon, market specialist at RDM Financial.

"As a result, investors out actions to rush on U.S. Treasury bonds, which only seem to represent security today."

In this unfavorable context for risky assets, return on German government bond (Bund) was relaxed to 10 years of nine basis points to fall to 1.68% – a new record low – and that of the French OAT ten basis points to 2.52%.

In the U.S., the yield on Treasuries of ten-year benchmark fell to 1.72%, its lowest level in at least 60 years, against 1.87% late Wednesday. The paper at age 30 has fallen below 2.8%, the lowest since January 2009.

The euro fell below 1.35 dollars, its lowest in seven months and was trading around 1.3430 / 34 vis-à-vis the ticket to Wednesday night against 1.3584.

The dollar's gains have led to the decline in raw materials. Even gold, considered a safe haven, lost nearly 5% to hit its lowest level in nearly a month because of the rising dollar.The spot gold was trading in the last place around 1737 dollars per ounce.

In fear of a recession, investors sold mainly cyclical stocks, as European car (-6.67%).

Similarly, banks, weighed down by an endless debt crisis in the euro area remain under pressure, including the French institutions. BNP Paribas lost 5.70%, 9.57% Societe Generale and Credit Agricole 9.49%. U.S. banks also lost ground. Citigroup has lost more than 6%.

Oil prices also ended sharply lower, on expectations of lower energy consumption in a recession.