The Director of the IMF's European Department on Wednesday welcomed in Rome "progress" made in economic reforms by the Italian Mario Monti, saying they were a "model" for Europe.

"Progress" made by Mr Monti on the last six months is "truly a model compared to progress in Europe," said Reza Moghadam, during a press conference at the end of the mission Annual Fund in Italy. According to him, "Italy is on track and has made remarkable progress over the last six months."

"It is not easy to remember that Italy was facing a very difficult and dangerous," he said, but added: "but the work is not finished. It takes more effort to encourage growth. "For his part Mr Monti also said that" much remains to be done to resolve the backlog for years and the structural weaknesses "." This is not the time of guard down, "he said

. Monti took the head of a technical government last November, replacing Silvio Berlusconi. He imposed a severe austerity to the Italians to avoid the financial strangulation in the country, awash in a huge debt. It also adopted a plan to liberalize the economy and a proposed market reform Labour, currently before Parliament

. However, the implementation of austerity measures has a significant cost: they have accentuated the recession and, by extension, the difficulties banks

.

The EC wrote in its economic prospects of the European Union biannual, that Spain should show a budget deficit of 6.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, unless you change the policies.

Madrid intends to reduce the deficit to 5.3% of GDP this year, against 8.5% in 2011 and, unless the finance ministers of the EU grant him more time to 3% in 2013, to save financial penalties. 

Even though the objective of the central government seems at hand, differences are expected at this stage for regional governments, the Commission explains in its report.

She added that the Spanish social security system is likely to remain in deficit this year due to the deteriorating outlook for the labor market.

The EU executive has revised sharply lower its forecast for GDP growth Spanish, now anticipating a 1.8% contraction in 2012, instead of 1.0% pre ; seen in February.

For 2012, the EC is planning a further contraction of economic activity, 0.3%, while the Spanish government is 0.2% growth. 

GROWTH FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013

The EC believes that Spain will be the only country in the euro area to suffer a recession in 2013. She plans for the euro area as a whole increased by 1% next year, after contracting 0.3% this year.

"The recovery is in sight but the economic situation remains fragile, with still large disparities between Member States", said in a statement the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn.

The combined fiscal deficit of the euro area would decrease to 3.2% of GDP in 2012, after 4.1% in 2011, and 2.9% in 2013.

"We're seeing an adjustment of fiscal and structural imbalances created before and after the crisis began and worsened by economic sentiment remains weak," says Rehn.

"Without new decisions energetic, low growth could persist in the EU. Sound public finances are a prerequisite for sustainable growth and, from an economic governance framework and strong again, we need to support the adjustment by accelerating the stability-oriented policies , and stimulation of growth "

. STAGNATION IN GREECE IN 2013

…… Regarding .. Greece, countries that initiated the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area and now depends on funding from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, the EC expects zero growth in 2013, after contracting 4.7% in 2012, the fifth year of recession

. The budget deficit would fall to 7.3% of GDP in 2012 after 9.1% in 2011 but, unless Greece takes further steps to further reduce the die ; deficit, it goes back to 8.4% next year. 

Portugal, which, like Greece, depends on the help of international donors, will be close to meeting its deficit targets this year and next, with a deficit of 4.7% in 2012 and 3.1% in 2013.

The Portuguese economy would suffer a contraction of 3.3% in 2012, after contracting 1.6% in 2011, then record a growth of 0.3% in 2013.

Ireland, the third countries in the euro area to take advantage of the coupled EU-IMF to grow by 0.5% in 2012, after 0.7% in 2011, and 1.9% in 2013. Its budget deficit would be reduced to 8.3% of GDP this year, after 13.1% in 2011, and 7.5% in 2013.

According lsa.fr, the market share of the distributor was down 1.7 percentage points, to 21%, against 22.7% during the same period last year .

"The two main signs of the Carrefour group are affected by this plunge: hypermarkets in mind, which fell 1.2 points to 11.4% market share while Carrefour Market supermarkets them lose 0.6 points to 7.9%, "the site that it is adding Leclerc, Système U and Intermarché who benefit most from the decline of the French leader.

Carrefour declined to comment.

The energy company reiterated in a statement that the minority buy International Power (IP), he hopes to complete in mid-July, it would raise its objective of recurring net income group share for 2012 to a level between 3.7 and 4.2 billion euros – against a range of 3.5 to 4000000000 referred before.

GDF Suez also confirmed it expects for 2012 a gross operating profit (EBITDA) of approximately 17 billion euros and gross investment of 11 billion out minority shareholders IP, as well as an ordinary dividend stable or increasing compared to 2011. 

Its sales reached 28.2 billion euros at end-March, up 10.5% (8.4% organically), while its EBITDA was $ 5.8 billion, up 5.7% (4.1% organically).

The group noted that its EBITDA benefited from higher earnings of branches Energy International – which includes the assets of International Power – Energy and Europe, as well as strong earnings growth of the Global Gas & LNG, including through the exploration and production activities.

By activity, sales totaled 4.169 million euros for International Power in the first quarter (14.4%), 1.327 million for Global Gas & LNG (69.8%) and 14,559,000 for the Energy Europe ( 8.3%). 

Net debt of GDF Suez totaled 37.1 billion euros at end-March, down 0.5 billion from late 2011 to a net debt to EBITDA of 2.2 times , confirming the group aiming for 2012 a 2.5 rating and a Class "A".

Shortly after the start of the general meeting of shareholders of the group, at 1440, the GDF Suez fell by 2.62% to 18.195 euros, while the CAC 40 lost 2.13%.

The Spanish Conservative government, in a race to deficit reduction, adopted Friday a plan to save the very sensitive areas of health and education, hoping thereby generating 10 billion euros in savings per year. Measurement flagship health reform, which aims to save $ 7 billion and probably promised the greatest unpopularity: retirees will now pay for their medications. An ad against the tide of the election campaign of the government leader Mariano Rajoy, who promised this fall despite the crisis to maintain the purchasing power of retirees. But "this is an effort to seek" the people, "because there is no money to pay utilities," acknowledged Mr. Rajoy Thursday. And "Spain is the second largest consumer of drugs," explained the Minister of Health Ana Mato.

Last year, 3,700 tons of medicines, expired or unused, have been destroyed. Traditionally, Spaniards do not pay to go to the doctor and pay out a portion of the cost of drugs, except for retirees who do not pay them anything. Now the latter, which represent three quarters of the national pharmaceutical spending (11 billion euros, 1.1% of GDP), will pay 10% of the invoice in pharmacies, to a maximum of 8 to 18 euro months depending on their income. Assets, which previously paid 40% of drugs, settle up to 60%, depending on their financial situation.

Unpopular reforms

In education, the government hopes to recover 3 billion euros: it will allow regions to drive up the cost of university tuition by 50%, increasing from 1000 to 1500 euros on average, and increase 20% the number of students per class. The 17 Spanish autonomous communities are in fact the first concerned by this savings plan: they engulf 50% of public spending in Spain. Three-quarters of their budgets spent on health, education and aid to dependent persons. In recent months, many of them have struggled to pay their suppliers, causing discontent among pharmacists and cuts heating and electricity in schools and colleges.  

But in touching on sensitive sectors, the government has come under fire, including the Socialist Party, which has expressed its "rejection front" of this new austerity plan. In health this represents "a paradigm shift in the national system, to gradually deteriorate and seek to dismantle the public health system," said Trinidad Jimenez, responsible for health PSOE. "The government sets the stage for a healthy wealthy and another for the poor," added the consumer association Facua. As for measures for education, "no country has ever overcome an economic crisis by reducing the equal opportunities of his youth" in this area, responded the secretary general of the PSOE, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba.

Both reforms are intended to enable regions to save 10 billion euros per year from 2013. According to a government source, "it also helps to share costs between the state and political areas." For the latter, which have already launched austerity measures in recent months, have all faced large popular demonstrations. Scrutinized by the government, they must submit by May remediation plans to reduce their budget deficit of 2.94% of GDP in 2011 to 1.5% in 2012. Those who do not comply will have their path set budget handled by the central state. The country as a whole twelve months to reduce by more than three points the deficit of 8.51% to 5.3% of GDP, and has already announced a budget, the most austere in its history, to recover 27.3 billion.

The Spanish Treasury has now covered half of its funding program for the year, benefiting from the liquidity pumped into the financial system by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its two refinancing long-term ("LTRO") in December and February. 

The Spanish Treasury has auctioned 1.12 billion euros of debt in two years and 1.42 billion euros of debt in ten years to increase coverage ratios, respectively, 3.3 and 2.4 against 2.0 and 2.2 at previous auctions of this type.

Performance of paper came out two years down to 3.463% against 3.495% at an auction in October, and that of ten years up to 5.743% against 5.403% in January.

European stock markets as the single currency have reduced their earnings a few minutes after the results of the auction, investors holding these mixed before returning color to the result of French a debt issue in line with expectations. 

"The coverage ratios for both the two years since the decade are quite good, but yields are clearly higher," explains Nick Stamenkovic, bond strategist for Ria Capital Markets.

"The real problem of Spain remains a serious budget situation and growth. Until there are signs that the government is currently implementing its program of consolidation medium-term budget, and signs of life in the Spanish economy, investors will worry the path of the debt to GDP (gross domestic product) in the medium term ", says he.

BREATHLESSNESS

Secondary market, the Spanish bond yields climbed to ten years around 5.88% against 5.79% before the auction. It was back above 6% Monday, as investors worried the country's budget problems.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday to expect that Spain lacks its deficit targets set under the supervision of the European Union in 2012 and 2013. Impaired loans of Spanish banks have also reached in February to their highest level since October 1994, illustrating the fragility of the country's financial sector.

Spanish banks, in fact excluded from the primary bond market because of their toxic real estate assets, used a large share of loans from the ECB to buy sovereign debt issued by Madrid.

Meanwhile, foreign investors increasingly shun the Spanish debt: investors residing outside the country have reduced their holdings of Spanish sovereign debt to 42% in February, against 50 % two months earlier. 

With half of its funding program in 2012 already covered the Spanish Treasury can now afford to issue debt at a slower pace if its costs borrowing remain high.

"The Treasury can afford to slow down (…) but Spain remains battered and locked in a negative feedback loop," said Jo Tomkins, strategist for 4Cast .

"The domestic banks have undoubtedly played a key role in the success of today's program, but we found increasing signs of slowing post-LTRO, and c is something that should be monitored carefully in the weeks and months ahead. "

The next sessions will be held Wednesday, May 9, Wednesday, June 6 and Wednesday, July 4, 2012.

To participate, contact us: – Benayoun Murielle> 01 75 55 50 63 – Franck METAY> 01 75 55 10 58 – E-mail>

club@lexpansion.com

In 2012, the Club de L'Expansion gets a makeover with The Express: Christophe Barbier, Managing Editor of L'Express and L'Expansion, and Philip Way, columnist, have designed this new format enliven the debate and after economic point of Beatrice Mathieu.

About the Club de L'Expansion

Each month, the Club de L'Expansion gives you an appointment with a prominent political figure and a renowned economic expert. Far diagnoses agreed and postures that abound in the media, members meet to exchange high-level economic and political, without taboo nor a priori.

These meetings in small circle and the value of the information collected can help you develop your thinking and your personal network. They set some benchmarks and also with the members in their decision-making in a world constantly changing.

Many other benefits are reserved for members to join and enjoy your tour, contact us by tel. 01 75 55 50 63 or email club@lexpansion.com

Contrary to the predictions of earlier this year by Christian Noyer, Governor of the Banque de France, inflation does not decline in France. It remains even at a high level. In March, consumer prices rose 0.8% on month (after +0.4% in February), and 2.3% year on year. Normally this would result in a revaluation of rates of pay A booklet of 25 basis points, according to mathematical formula which is based on determining the rate of investment preferred by the French – 93% have.

The law provides that changes in rates of Livret come into force on February 1 and August 1. But large changes in inflation, such as increases currently observed may also result in rate changes on May 1 and November 1. In short: compensation should automatically go from 2.25% currently to 2.50% in a fortnight. There is a good chance they will not happen.

The government can indeed block the automatic adjustment of the booklet A. He has already done in the past, particularly to address the declining rate as in August 2009 – at that time, the rate had dropped 1.75% to 1.25%, while the application of the rule would justify a reduction to 0.25%. But at election time, the opposite is true: the government blocks the upward revaluation. This is what happened last February, while inflation already justified a rate increase to 2.50%.  

Increase the rate by 0.25 A booklet would cost 500 million euros effect (the total amount outstanding of 60 million accounts reached 223 billion euros) to the State, 700 million even if one adds the blue books. While the booklet A is a popular product, but it could still be perceived as a gift to investors. So the Livret A rate is likely to remain at 2.25%, at least until August 1.

"This level of rate barely covers inflation. At The booklet does not generate more over-compensation for savers, analysis Gommard Benedict, CEO of Cortal Consors. It is a product that preserves the purchasing power but which offers no more. " However, this low attractiveness of the booklet A should not lead to a massive outflow, estimated the specialist savings and online brokerage. Indeed, the booklet A "is a reassuring product in an increasingly anxiety-provoking," he concludes.

Difficult to see clearly in the statistics of China's foreign trade. After recording a record trade deficit in February, the Middle Kingdom has a surplus of 5.3 billion in March.

Even if Chinese firms continue to suffer from the debt crisis in Europe and a hesitant recovery in the U.S., exports of the second world economy grew by 8.9% yoy. Not so bad. In March, sales abroad of China totaled 165.66 billion dollars. For their part, imports reached 160.31 billion dollars, up 5.3% year on year.  

"The surplus in March is quite low so that the deterioration occurred in foreign markets since last year has continued to affect Chinese exports," he told AFP Liao Qun, China economist for Citi Bank International. This return to a surplus as a surprise to fifteen analysts polled by Dow Jones agency, who on average expected a deficit of $ 3.2 billion. Indeed, the latter provided stronger imports. But they have slowed in March, mechanically inflating the trade balance.

"Domestic demand continues to slow," said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC. However, outside of this effect that disrupts the development of the trade balance, China remains competitive. In 2012, the projected growth in foreign trade of the world's leading exporter is about 10%. This remains higher than expected growth in world trade (6%).

While trade with the EU skate, China has many other growth. In the first quarter, its trade with the United States and Southeast Asia grew by 9.3%. Bilateral trade with Russia, meanwhile, has jumped 33% year on year.

Finally, the slower growth of foreign trade does not affect all regions of China in the same way, while some inland provinces are beginning to catch up on the coastal provinces, which until now focused exporting companies . While exports of Guangdong (south), which ranks first provinces to trade with abroad, rose only 5.4% in the first quarter, those of Chongqing (Southwest) and Henan (center) have respectively increased by 150% and 140%, according to Customs.

The strength of exports is vital for China must maintain a solid growth to contain unemployment and social discontent. Friday the country should publish the number of growth for the first quarter. Analysts polled by the business daily Diyi Caijing Ribao (China Business News), GDP growth should be limited to 8.4%, against 8.9% for the fourth quarter 2011 and 9.2% for all last year.

Business investment was an engine of French growth in late 2011. And it should still contribute positively to GDP growth this year. But not enough to generate a rebound expected by the government. A study of the credit insurer Euler Hermes posted Wednesday, in fact, only a quarter of French companies plan to increase their investments in 2012. And made to depend on two spending growth prospects. And as these are faiblardes, their investment projects are too. This is the snake biting its tail …

Business investment should experience an increase shy of 0.5% annual rate in 2012, according to Euler Hermes. And growth in France would be reduced to 0.4%. Accompanied by a table yet another bad news: the quality of these investments will continue to deteriorate.

To forecast, Euler Hermes interogé 1684 companies from November to January. 25.8% said they plan to increase investment, 20.5% to 53.7% and reduced to maintain unchanged from 2011. "The wishes of investment are investments for renewal, not of development investments," said Ludovic Sénécaut, CEO of Euler Hermes, during a press conference.  

Thus, according to the study, 8.9% of these some 26% of companies ready to increase their spending account to make investments for productivity gains, 0.8% of spending on research and development. As for the increase in production capacity, it accounts for 19.1% of their spending intentions, while the renewal is 26.7%.

Most of the rest are investing in staff, told AFP chief economist of Euler Hermes, Ludovic Subran. Mr. Sénécaut notes that this situation of "low quality spending", already visible in 2011, "continues to deteriorate". Phenomenon "consistent with a French economy still facing enormous internal market and, when she goes to the international, country chooses and thus close to areas where the activity is and will remain weak for some years yet,"- he said.  

"We are very concerned about the effects of a second round of austerity measures in Italy, Spain and the UK," added Mr. Subran. Side outlets in the Hexagon, "there is still not in France of measures to fight against unemployment and unfortunately we can expect that it continues to increase in 2012," he said , holding that it is "worrisome" for consumption.

Euler Hermes also anticipates a rebound in 4% of business failures this year to 63,500, "record numbers", says Subran.

Asked about the presidential election, he felt that the campaign is the tax that could have "an effect on investment spending." "No candidate can become president without calling flat what is going on taxation in France. There is a volatility of taxes that worries companies," he said.