Archive for the ‘blog’ Category

05
Nov

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The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up 1.86% Friday, the Japanese financial sector has benefited, as Wall Street and European stock markets, the prospect of Athens abandoned its proposed referendum on the bailout of the country.

The Nikkei gained 160.98 points to 8,801.40 and the Topix, broader, took 13.44 points (1.82%) to 752.02.

Over the whole week, accusing the two indices, however, a decrease of 2.8% and 2.5%.

The beginning of the week had led to panic after Prime Minister George Papandreou had overtaken everyone by announcing Monday he would submit the bailout of Greece to a referendum.

04
Nov

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A depreciation of 798 million euros spent on Greek sovereign debt held in the portfolio has plunged the quarterly Commerzbank in the red and forced the second German bank to abandon its annual targets.

"We continue to be incurred by our original goal of an operating profit of four billion euros for the group, but given the market environment, we will not be able to reach next year" , said Friday Martin Blessing, CEO of Commerzbank.

In early trade on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the title of the bank fell by 5.53% to 1.656 euro while the index grouping the European banking stocks gained 0.61%.

Having already reduced its exposure to the most indebted countries in the euro area over 20% to 13 billion euros, a discount of 52% spent on the Greek securities, Commerzbank said it would continue to reduce its portfolios of sovereign debt issued by Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Greece.

The bank charged an operating loss of 855 million euros in the third quarter against a profit of 116 million a year ago and a Reuters consensus of 683 million euros.

The profits generated by the core business of Commerzbank – loans to medium-sized German companies – continued to be substantial, said the bank to 344 million euros.

31
Oct

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French banks, which publish their accounts in early November for the third quarter, are expected by investors on their performance in market activities and their cost of funds after the market storm of summer has suddenly melted during their Stock Exchange.

Beyond the impact of depreciation on new Greek debt as a result of the Europe Agreement of 27 October and an expected revaluation of debt that will boost results, they should undergo a significant decline in their income banking and investment (BFI), analysts said.

Institutions such as Barclays, UBS and the Swiss German Deutsche Bank, have all recorded sharp decline in income and profits in this sector.

"Given the volatility in the markets since this summer, we will look closely at the impact on market activities," said Christophe Nijdam, an analyst at AlphaValue.

"We'll see if there was blood in the trading rooms in both equity trading activities (actions, Ed) and fixed income (interest rates, Ed)," he says.

The quarterly results will also be an opportunity for French banks to specify the measures they intend to implement to enhance their financial strength to cope with the debt crisis in the euro area in early October that forced the Franco-Belgian Dexia decommissioning.

As part of the recapitalization of the banking sector, the European Banking Authority has estimated that a total of 8.8 billion euros deficit capital of BNP Paribas (2.1 billion), Societe Generale (3.3 billion) and BPCE (People's Bank, Savings Bank) (3.4 billion).

Unions and bankers expect in the context of a degradation of the environment that they are announcing job cuts, especially in their BFI.

18
Oct

A triple threat of France

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Moody's is given three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" on "AAA" tricolor is still justified. The rating agency said that financire the financial strength of the French government has weakened. The Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin presented Wednesday, September 28 in Council ministresle of the state budget for 2012.

The rating agency Moody's Investors Service gave the first Monday penknife to the sacrosanct "AAA" rating of France, announcing that it gave three months to determine whether his perspective "stable" was still justified in view of the deteriorating economic situation."Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and evaluate the stable outlook (the note of the country) in the light of progress made by the government to implement" the measures announced to reduce the budget deficit, said the agency rating in a statement.

France has currently the highest rating possible from Moody's (a "Aaa"), as from its main rival Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. This high rating allows it to borrow on the markets in very favorable terms to finance its budget deficits. If the prospect of this note should be revised to "negative", this would imply that Moody's would likely reduce the medium-term (usually for a term of three to twelve months).And France would become the new big country, after the United States to lose the precious talisman financially.

The agency is careful to note that this review is part of its annual study on the accounts of France and that it is not – at this stage – a decision on the note country. But it is the first of three major rating agencies and to cast a shadow on the "Aaa" French. Last week, Moody's had yet to confirm the strength of the French note, after the announcement of the restructuring of the bank Dexia.

Keeping the promise of deficit reduction

In addition to the ability of the French government to meet its budget commitments, Moody's says it will consider in its deliberations "new negative developments in the economy or financial markets."In its statement, Moody's notes that the financial strength of the French government, although still very high, "has weakened, as is the case for other countries in the euro area, as the economic and financial crisis in the world has led to a deterioration in its debt ratios, which are now among the lowest rated countries Aaa + + ".

For Moody's, so it is "crucial" for France to maintain "investor confidence in its ability and willingness to deal with unforeseen challenges."Or "France could face a number of challenges in the coming months – such as the need for additional support to other European countries or its own banking system, which could increase so significant commitments that must support the country's budget, "said Moody's.

"The deterioration of debt ratios and the ability to see new potential liabilities are putting pressure on the prospect of stable rating Aaa + + of the country," said the agency. For Moody's, the French government now less room for maneuver in 2008 (…) "during the crisis of" subprime "." The continued commitment to implement economic reform measures and budgetary and visible progress in the goals "for reducing debt" will be important for maintaining the stable outlook "of the note of the country, the agency warns.

09
Oct

Barroso warns of the consequences of non Greek

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A fault of Greece have unpredictable consequences, including the risk that the debt crisis in the euro area spread to other countries, said Commission President José Manuel Barroso, quoted in the German daily Bild.

Discussions between Athens and the inspectors of the mission the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-European Union (EU)-European Central Bank (ECB) continued for a payment of a new tranche under the aid plan international countries.

Greece could be short of money in the month of November without this slice of eight billion euros.

"If we leave Greece, there are more chances for the crisis is spreading to other countries," said José Manuel Barroso in an interview to be published by Bild on Monday.

The President of the European Commission stressed that no one had ever experienced a bankruptcy of a member state of the euro area.

"We have entered uncharted territory and we are talking of solutions that have never been tested before."

Didier Reynders, Belgian Finance Minister, also made comments rather alarmist, saying that Greece should be helped to prevent financial contagion across what had happened during the collapse of Lehman Brothers in any late summer 2008.

"If we do not solve the Greek problem, if there is a danger of contagion to Spain and Italy, while the worst case scenario could materialize," he said in an interview published Saturday by the Greek magazine Proto.

Nicolas Sarkozy traveled to Berlin on Sunday for talks with Angela Merkel of crisis, with a priority to overcome their differences on how to recapitalize European banks.

In announcing the end of September it moves ahead in the German capital, the French president had indicated he would discuss with the Chancellor "ways and means to accelerate economic integration in the euro area and implement as soon as possible" the new aid plan for Greece approved July 21 by the Europeans.

DEBT REDUCTION GREEK underestimated DIT SCHÄUBLE

Wolfgang Schäuble, German Finance Minister, said that Europe may have underestimated the amount of debt should be reduced Greek summit on 21 July.

The summit, which established the principle of a second aid plan for Greece and that of an extension of the powers of EFSF, provides that private creditors agree to a 21% discount on their debt Greek.

"It is possible that, in July, we held a level of debt reduction is too low," said Wolfgang Schäuble, quoted by the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Eurogroup, said a few days ago that the finance ministers of the euro area were reviewing the extent of private sector involvement in the second bailout of Greece.

"There are significant risks to the crisis deepens and widens," said Wolfgang Schäuble.

Greece is at a crossroads and must implement "structural reforms much more stringent" to avoid failure, said the head of the IMF mission in Greece, Poul Thomsen, quoted by the German Sunday newspaper Welt am Sonntag .

"Greece is at a crossroads," said Thomsen. "It is clear that the program will not work if the authorities do not take a path that requires structural reforms much harder than we've seen so far."

"Greece is two steps forward, one back," said Thomsen."The Greek government has much of the most difficult changes are to come."

About the austerity measures, Didier Reynders warned however that we should not go too far: "We do not want a cure that will kill Greece."

Greek Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou could propose the formation of a unity government with the opposition to try out his country from the financial crisis, a local newspaper reported Saturday.

The government has however denied reports published by the financial daily Imerisia which raises the possibility of a resignation of Papandreou order to reach a political consensus and bring together a large majority in parliament supporting a coalition government.

28
Sep

The European Parliament budgetary discipline hardens States

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The European Union will set up a system of tougher sanctions against countries that allow spinning deficits. View of the European Parliament.

The European Union will significantly tighten its budgetary discipline to learn from the debt crisis, following a vote Wednesday the European Parliament which provides for sanctions easier to take than in the past against states that allow spinning their deficits. This vote will allow the entry into force of a device to strengthen the European Stability Pact, discussed for nearly a year and already agreed by member states of the European Union.

In the future, financial sanctions will fall faster and easier, in the form of cash deposit in blocked accounts can be converted into fines against countries deemed to be lax. This mechanism is intended as the consideration for the implementation of the Financial Assistance Fund for countries in trouble in the euro area.Reform – called "6 Pack" because it's actually six pieces of legislation-was originally proposed by the European Commission to draw lessons from the debt crisis in Greece.

Reform had become necessary as the Stability Pact, as it was originally designed has proved largely ineffective as too little deterrent. Governments have spent their time in ten years around it. The reform will allow the Commission to seek remedies and even punish states that move away from deficit criteria (3% of GDP) and debt (60% of GDP) by claiming that the State would make the ignore the deposit of a sum equivalent to 0.2% of GDP. The six pieces of legislation received the support of conservatives and liberals.

The left has denounced reform too focused on rigor and not enough on the recovery.The reform "is good news for the EU", welcomed the President of the European Parliament Jerzy Buzek after the vote. "Reform is an austerity pact that is based on cuts and penalties. It leaves no flexibility to EU states for spending smart, targeted investments," he regretted the contrary, the socialist Stephen Hughes .

20
Sep

Food aid to the poorest in Europe threatened

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Several countries opposed to the maintenance of European budgets that fund free meals for more than 13 million people. With 80% of EU funds within the associations could distribute 130 million meals in less than in 2012.

A meeting of the "last chance" is scheduled in Brussels on Tuesday to prevent a drastic reduction of a European food aid to the poor from agricultural funds. If no agreement is reached, the program will increase from 480 million euros per year to 113.5 million euros in 2012.Currently several European states form a blocking minority which opposes the continued existence of the annual budget of the European Programme of assistance to the poor (MDP) – funded by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) – the result of a decision of the European Court of Justice in April.

Four charities have warned Monday in Paris that the decline of European funds allocated to the poor could cause a "tsunami food" in countries of the European Union. Les Restos du Coeur, Secours populaire, the Red Cross and the French Federation of Food Banks (FFBA) have called on ministers to "take responsibility" to find a solution quickly and avoid a "humanitarian crisis" in 2012. "We are facing a new situation (…) While there has never been more demand, there has never been so many threats on our action," said Olivier Berthe, president of the Eating Heart.With 80% of European funds and less, "the associations are likely to distribute 130 million meals in less than in 2012," said Didier Piard, head of advocacy at the Red Cross.

According to one European diplomat, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Denmark, and Sweden have so far opposed a transitional formula that would overcome the objections of the Court of Justice and maintain the MDP at current levels for 2012 and 2013."We have nothing against helping the needy, but this is social policy, which is the responsibility of Member States," said a diplomat from one of these states.

13 million people in need

This program, established in 1987 under the leadership of the President of the European Commission at the time, Jacques Delors, in response to the call of the founder of the "Restos du Coeur" Coluche, helps distribute through 240 charitable organizations, support of European stocks pulled the CAP to more than 13 million people. Nineteen of the 27 EU states benefit, at whose head Italy, Poland and France.

But the last two years, the inventory level was so low that the EU had to compensate for large purchases of food destined for food banks.Following a complaint from Germany, the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg in April estimated that these purchases were incompatible with the CAP, requiring the Commission to bring the envelope for years to come at the existing stocks, or 113.5 million euros.

A prospect that provoked an outcry. The European Commission has finally found a way around the objections of the Court, but now faces the blocking minority. In recent days, several states in favor of maintaining the program at its current level have engaged in intense lobbying skeptical countries to try to convince at least one, and thus to shatter the blocking minority, explained diplomats.

05
Sep

Lagarde reiterates its call to recapitalize banks

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Despite the criticism that accommodate its proposal, the new director of the IMF persists and signs in an interview with a German weekly. IMF Executive Director Christine Lagarde at a news conference in Washington July 6, 2011

Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, repeated in an interview published Monday in Germany criticized the application of a European bank recapitalization.

"We think in general it is necessary to recapitalize European banks so that they are strong enough to withstand the risks associated with the debt crisis and low growth," she told the weekly Der Spiegel.

"It is necessary to prevent contagion" problems, she said.

Ms. Lagarde was prompted indignant reactions in Europe already calling a few days ago to strengthen urgently the equity of European banks.

The boss of the IMF, when it was French Finance Minister has criticized Germany's dependence on exports and inadequate intake, also called Berlin in this interview to "stimulate domestic demand, it would be good for the German economy and neighboring countries. "

Lagarde finally claims that "the whole idea (behind the introduction of fiscal rules of thumb) is good," but felt that the inclusion in the constitution limits of public debt "must be understood as a signal to financial markets. "

Germany and France have called on countries in the euro area to adopt such rules of thumb, and Spain responded to the call, although this initiative has been criticized by the President of the European Union Herman Van Rompuy.

02
Sep

European shares relapse after four sessions of up

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European shares ended sharply lower Friday, ending mostly to four sessions of consecutive increase after the announcement of a halt in job creation in the United States in August.

The CAC 40 index fell 3.59% to 3148.53 points. The benchmark index of the Paris, however, who managed to stay on top of an important support points in 3136, managed to record a gain of 1.97% for the week.

Other major European markets also stumbled, leaving London and Milan respectively 2.34% and 3.89%.Frankfurt, who had already lost ground yesterday, yielded 3.36%.

For the week, the London was up 3.16% while its German counterpart has remained stable (0.02%).

"There are fears a 'double dip' (relapse), several indicators have turned to orange or red. It's like 'take the cash and run' on the market," said Fabrice Cousté, CEO of CMC Markets France, highlighting the rapid exit of investors from stocks to safe havens.

The Swiss franc and back ground on the European single currency within 1.12 franc per euro (1.1174 francs to 6:13 p.m.), 1.13 franc against most of the day.Similarly, gold rose 2.82% to 1,875.96 dollars per ounce.

SYSTEMIC CRISIS

Another illustration of the renewed risk aversion of investors, the performance of the German government bond (Bund) and 10 years fell below 2% in the wake of the publication of U.S. employment figures.

"We will turn to the Fed and its special meeting two days. But the Fed is out of breath and lack of ammunition.We should not have EQ3, but probably something more technical, "said Fabrice Cousté.

The latter warns that in the meantime the markets should still live on hard times even if investment opportunities should arise in securities of groups able to significantly increase their prices or capacity of important innovations.

Friday, fears of relapse into recession in developed countries have particularly affected the cyclicals and financials.

As for banks, Alpha Bank has dropped 9.26%, Barclays 8.4% and 7.38% Credit Agricole. The automotive industry, PSA fell 5.99%, 5.17% of Volkswagen and Fiat of 4.98%.

"The market values ​​have a relapse into recession scenario.Only a systemic crisis as in 2008 is not yet 'pricée ", explains Benoît Peloille, equity strategist at Natixis.

"However, central banks have just replaced the emergency measures that had helped break the stalemate in the interbank market resulting from the collapse of Lehman Brothers," he adds.

17
Aug

Lafarge withdraws its joint venture with Australia's Boral

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Lafarge announced on Wednesday the sale to the Australian Boral its stake in their joint venture equally in the plaster in Asia worth 429 million euros as part of its debt.

The world cement continues its withdrawal from the plaster, the smallest of its three businesses, in February after setting an ambitious target of over two billion euros of debt, half by reducing the dividend, and for other by a decline in investment and new divestitures.

Final completion of the sale of its share of Lafarge Boral Gypsum Asia (LBGA) expected before the end of the year, Lafarge said in a statement.

The price of EUR 429 million represents the value from Lafarge LBGA.Excluding debt and minority interests, the price stood at 380 million euros.

Founded in 2000, LBGA conducted last year in sales attributable to the group of 181 million euros and EBITDA of 31 million.

Lafarge had already announced July 22 the sale of its gypsum in Australia in its German competitor Knauf for a net worth of 120 million euros, ten days after entering into exclusive negotiations with the Belgian Etex plaster to give up his European and South America, for a net amount of 850 million euros.

With these assignments, which follow the cement and concrete assets in the United States announced in May, Lafarge will far exceed the target of disinvestment of 750 million euros it has set for 2011.

The group's debt, inherited largely from the acquisition of the Egyptian Orascom in 2008 reached 14.3 billion euros at the end of June.

Moody's announced on August 5 lower the debt rating of Lafarge Cement in the speculative grade, five months after a similar decision by the Standard & Poor's.