Archive for the ‘blog’ Category

15
May

Banks to withstand worst-case Greek, says ACP

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Banks and insurance companies French are able to cope with a possible exit of Greece in the euro area, said Monday the Prudential Control Authority (ACP).

While the markets are worried that the Hellenic Republic is forced to leave the eurozone because of the political impasse in which it is located since the legislative elections, Christian Noyer, the pre President of the ACP group explained that no French financial difficulties would set if this scenario were to occur.

Asked whether French banks and insurers could resist such a scenario, Christian Noyer, who is also governor of the Banque de France and member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank ( ECB), said: "My answer is yes."

" I know of no group that would be put in difficulties by an extreme scenario of Greece, "he said at a press conference to present the 2011 CPA report

. He also recalled that French banks, which are among the foreign banks most exposed to Greece, had provisioned the Greek sovereign debt they hold in their account up 75%

. The European Commission said Monday hoped that Greece remains within the euro area, while requesting new exhibitions ; ties to honor its commitments

. Everywhere on the planet, however, banks are preparing to work with a new currency in greece. 

In France, Credit Agricole, is particularly vulnerable to Greece because of its local subsidiary Emporiki, has also said on Friday prepared for all eventualities.

"The risk is virtually no longer supported by the private sector which has already funded a large part of Greek debt," said Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays Exchange. "The Greek debt is essentially supported by the European states."

"Meaningless"

The CPA also pointed at his press conference that French had since the crisis strengthened their financial strength and they now showed capital ratios "hard "(so-called 'core tier one') above 9%, above the requirements of the European Banking Authority (EBA).

Asked about the risks of contagion from the debt crisis in the euro area and on the budgetary situation of Spain, Christian Noyer said that no other European country was in "a situation comparable to Greece."

"Assimilating Spain to Greece is meaningless," he insisted. 

The ACP also said that the government sought a "permanent solution" to the Credit Immobilier de France (CIF) including the ability to refinance on the markets would be put to the e ; evidence in case of deterioration of its rating by Moody's.

Finding that the mortgage specialist had a solvency situation "very satisfactory", Christian Noyer has nevertheless recognized that the model of organization and activities of the CIF-oriented refinancing markets, had become "difficult to manage" because of the financial crisis in the euro area. 

According to Les Echos, the British bank HSBC was mandated to find a buyer at the ITC which several bond saw their listing be suspended early last week.

07
May

Industrial production down 7.5% in March in Spain

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Spanish industrial production fell by 7.5% yoy in March, down significantly stronger than expected, according to data released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

Economists had expected a decline of 5.4% after falling 5.3% in February (revised).

The economic difficulties of Spain, the fourth largest economy in the euro area, recent weeks have given the debt crisis on the front of the stage.

24
Apr

Successful auction in the Netherlands despite the political crisis

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The Netherlands Tuesday awarded two successful bond lines that allowed them to raise two billion euros after the political crisis by the resignation of the government.

The agency of the Dutch public debt was between 1.5 billion and 2.5 billion euros.

"This is a good result under the circumstances. This is presented poorly yesterday but they managed to put it all in minutes, "said a trader in the bond market, who requested anonymity ….

….. "Place one billion on the line long term is particularly good sign," he said

. The yield on

line maturing in 2014 stood at 0.523%, down from 0.664% to yield the secondary market Monday ……. The yield on

.. line due in 2037 stood at 2.782% against 2.773% in the secondary market the day before

.

"Many investors believe that the Netherlands has solid fundamentals frankly. Yields are high but traders are satisfied, "said Lyn Graham Taylor, bond strategist at Rabobank

.

16
Apr

Values ​​followed by mid-session e the Paris Bourse

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List of stocks covered Monday to the Paris Bourse, where the CAC 40 index is back above the 3,200 points (1.05% to 3222.70 points at 12:26), after its withdrawal 3.94% suffered last week, supported particularly by the energy sector.

* However, banking stocks suffer from persistent market fears about the financial position of the peripheral countries of the euro area, the performance of Spanish debt in ten years being spent at above 6% for the first time since the start of the year.

BNP PARIBAS leaves 3.55%, largest drop in the CAC 40, followed by Crédit Agricole (-3.28%) and SOCIETE GENERALE (-2.5%). The index Stoxx European banking yields 0.93%. ACC off, DEXIA (-11.54%) shows the largest decrease of the SBF 120 and Natixis were down 2.43%.

In addition, Citigroup cut its price targets on several French banking stocks.

* ENERGY SECTOR's is up at European level (+1.6%) while VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS jumped 18.49%, two Chinese groups planning to launch a takeover offer for the Danish manufacturer wind turbine, the newspaper Jyllands-Posten.

Technip (3.83%) signed the largest increase in the CAC 40, MAUREL ET PROM was up 2.76%, 2.55% of CGG VERITAS and TOTAL of 1.96%.

GDF SUEZ wins 3.06%. The group announced the acquisition of 30% International Power (0.73%) that did not already own for 6.8 billion pounds (8.3 billion euros). He announced in the wake that it was within its target of recurring net profit CEOs for 2012 at between 3.7 and 4.2 billion euros, against 3.5 to 4 billion previously.

* DOLLAR VALUES are oriented correctly, the euro had hit a two-month low against the greenback, investors reducing their exposure to the euro area. EADS rose 2.7%, 1.29% and STMICROELECTRONICS ZODIAC AEROSPACE of 3.42% (largest increase in the SBF 120).

* Illustrating the continuing investor concerns for the situation in Europe, defensive stocks are sought. Air Liquide wins 1.96%, 1.5% or Pernod Ricard ESSILOR 1.38%.

* RENAUL PSA and win respectively 1.99% and 1.34%. According to trade publication The Letter VN Auto K7, orders for new cars in France saw their slow decline in March.

* INTERNATIONAL GECI remains suspended until Tuesday. The aerospace engineering company said it had been informed of the lapse of a memorandum of agreement to finance the project of French aircraft Skylander, and said it was exploring new ways of financing.

The project Skylander is grossly under-funded in its current setup and would require tens of millions of euros of additional investment, according to an expert report that Reuters was able to consult.

03
Apr

The number of unemployed went up in Spain

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The country now has 4.7 million jobless. In Andalusia, the region most affected, the unemployment rate exceeds 30%. Spanish unemployed line up at an employment office in Madrid.

This is a sad record that just defeated the Spanish economy. The number of unemployed in Spain has reached the end of March to 4.75 million people. This is the highest figure since the first release of these monthly statistics in 1996.

This figure of 4,750,867 job seekers also marks the eighth consecutive month of increase in the number of unemployed. And for good reason: without its economic engine, build, Spain is no longer able to create enough jobs. The short-term economic prospects are particularly bleak for this country that has returned to recession in the first quarter of 2012. After a low growth of 0.7% in 2011, the government anticipates a decline of 1.7% of GDP over the whole of 2012.  

Today, the Spanish unemployment rate is one of the highest in the OECD. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), the rate was 22.85% of the workforce in late 2011. According to figures from the EU statistics office, Eurostat, which uses a different methodology, Spain posted an unemployment rate of 23.6% in février.En Andalusia, the region most affected country, the rate Unemployment exceeds 30% even.

The Spanish Government, these figures justify the ongoing reform of the labor market, even if it is painful. "It is necessary to recall the importance to have a framework of trust and flexibility for businesses, as one established by the labor reform," the Ministry of Employment in a statement.

But the public does not hear it that way. A sea of ​​people marched through the streets of Spain on March 29, after a general strike against the labor reform, in force since February. According to the unions, the reform will only exacerbate the scourge of unemployment, while the government itself provides for the destruction of 630,000 jobs in 2012 and unemployment at 24.3% at year end.

Labor reform is also involved along with the austerity plan intended to reduce the public deficit, which makes it even more unpopular. The government must reduce to 5.3% of GDP in the year-end deficit, after a slip up 8.51% in 2011, at great cost benefits. To do this, the government must present to Parliament a budget Tuesday of unprecedented stringency, providing 27.3 billion euros in savings.

30
Mar

A lower deficit facilitates the task of the next president

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The government deficit in France in 2011 was lower than expected, which will facilitate the task of the next president if the economy does not collapse.

After 5.2% of GDP last year, instead of 5.7% expected in the Finance Act, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, favorite polls, have pledged to re reduce the public deficit to 4.5% and 3.0% end of 2012, limit the European stability pact in late 2013.

The effort would be lower than expected.

The outgoing president praised the figure of Friday.

"France has done much better thanks to the efforts of the French," he said, renewing his promise to reach 3% in late 2013. 

But the trend was poor in January and a sharp economic slowdown is expected for all of 2012, likely to derail the accounts if it were larger.

The "good" figure of 2011 on Friday will also be confirmed by further appreciation expected on May 15

The government balance includes accounts of the state, local and social security funds. It has not been positive since 1974.

Nicolas Sarkozy promised to return to balance end of 2016 and his Socialist opponent François Hollande end of 2017.

DOUBTS IMPORTANT FOR 2012

In January, the government deficit, which is the largest component of public deficit fell by less than a billion euros over January 2010.

A negative signal, even if the accounting parameters are not identical, to the rise or fall, a positive impact of € 2.6 billion having been such registered in January through the sale of radio frequencies.

The government deficit in February will be released April 6.

Especially, strong economic growth this year, which largely determine the amount of revenue is uncertain. 

The government has just raised its growth forecast for 2012 to 0.7% against 0.5% earlier (after 1.7% in 2010), while Francois Hollande provides 0.5% .

International institutions and economists are less optimistic, the IMF providing 0.2%, 0.3% OECD and the European Commission 0.4%.

The evolution of public finances is crucial for France, already deprived of its precious AAA by Standard and Poor's and sees its sovereign rating placed on "negative outlook" by the three major rating agencies.

Borrowing costs on financial markets may increase, which would make the effort to restore data even more important. 

The yield differential ("spread") between the French public debt to 10 years and German debt is currently above 110 basis points, or 1.1%.

This level is much lower than that achieved in November, at the height of tensions on the debt in the eurozone, to nearly 200 points, but it is much higher than the observed 30 to 40 points s during "normal".

24
Mar

European shares open slightly higher

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The main European stock markets opened slightly higher on Friday after four sessions of consolidation, while the growth prospects in France were revised upwards.

In Paris, around 9:15, the CAC 40 gained 0.19% to 3,479 points. The DAX 30 is 0.3% and the FTSE ahead 0.20%. The Eurostoxx 50 is 0.22%.

Values, EADS gained 1.75%. The German government is preparing to buy 12% stake in planemaker taking over the holdings of Daimler and several private banks, it was learned Friday from the German government source.

BOLLORÉ gained 2.7% after announcing a 19% increase in operating profit.

BT gained 4.8%. The British telecoms operator plans to pay two billion pounds into its pension fund as part of a new plan more advantageous than nine years.

The French government raised its economic growth forecast for 2012 to 0.7%, against 0.5% previously, and was lowered to 1.75% for 2013, against 2.0%, said Minister of Economy Baroin.

This announcement follows the revision by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), its growth forecast to 0% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter of 2012.

Moreover, the overall business climate in France has improved significantly in March, to 95 points, an increase of 4 points, according to INSEE. 

In the U.S., the indicator of home sales in the nine will allow investors to refine their expectations of recovery in the industry and the economy in general.

16
Mar

India, a market of 145 billion by 2030, according to Airbus

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The Indian aviation, booming, will need more than 1,040 new aircraft by 2030, with a total value of $ 145 billion (111 billion euros), said Thursday the aircraft manufacturer Europé Airbus, an EADS subsidiary.

"Urbanization and increasing concentrations of population, combined with the development of a middle class and dynamic economic growth, supporting demand and this trend should continue," the group said in a statement.

14
Mar

Liquidity becomes "rare and expensive," said Societe Generale

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Liquidity for banks has become a scarce and expensive and the interbank market will not leave en masse as the new banking standards of the Basel Committee will not be changed, said Wednesday Frédéric Oudéa, CEO of Societe Generale.

Because of concerns about the strength of the European banking system in the context of debt crisis in the euro area and more stringent prudential standards, European banks have difficulty ; refinance.

Tensions on bank liquidity were such as the European Central Bank (ECB) had to intervene twice in December and late February, to inject more than one.000 billion euros in loans to three years (LTRO) to help European banks and avoid a credit crunch.

"The world has changed considerably and perhaps even more on the liquidity of capital (.) The great lesson of the crisis is that liquidity is now chè re and much rarer, "said Frederic Oudéa at a conference at the European American Press Club in Paris.

"The interbank market, direct loans become scarce," he added.

In Europe, other bank executives emphasize that the interbank market has not returned to normal operation despite the extraordinary intervention of the ECB. 

"The liquidity is still abundant despite the funds injected by the ECB," has said Federico Ghizzoni, the Chief of the Italian bank UniCredit at a conference in Rome . "It is difficult to find financing medium and long term."

"SAFETY NET"

"The LTRO (ECB, Ed), this is a safety net (…) which allows us to give where we must pay without fear of tomorrow," he For its part, commented the head of SocGen.

Asked about the debt swap Greek and the onset of CDS, the contracts that protect an investor against default risk, Frédéric Oudéa, who is also the pre President of the French Banking Federation (FBF) found that the 'credit-default swaps "were not a" significant issue "for banks. 

"The problem of default, the organization's default, this is not so much the CDS (credit default swaps, Ed) which, after all the numbers floating around, not rep not feel a significant issue for any bank and financial system (…) the problem of financing the Greek system, "reported the director general of SocGen.

"All these figures were provided by banks as part of the exercise stress tests (stress tests) of EBA (European Banking Authority, Ed)," Has he added. 

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the organization brings together the major players in the derivatives markets, decided Friday by activating a measure requiring private creditors to take losses on their sovereign debt, Greece had triggered the payment of CDS.

The agency, however, held that payment of these CDS, estimated at some $ 3 billion, would have no significant impact on markets.

13
Mar

The aviation demand negotiations on carbon tax

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Airbus officials, airlines and engine manufacturers in Europe have written to European political leaders urging them to resolve the dispute arose from the recent introduction of a carbon tax in the EU.

The signatories declared that reprisals from China and other countries opposed to the European level of taxation of carbon emissions (ETS) have serious consequences for the sector, has Airbus said in a statement.

According to Airbus, China has already suspended $ 12 billion of orders, which could lead to destruction according to the manufacturer of over 1,000 jobs internally and at least 1,000 extra in the chain not supply. 

The nine general managers who sign this letter to the Prime Ministers English, French, Spanish and German Chancellor expect that the list of cancellations of orders continues to grow .

The petitioners request the holding urgent talks at the European Council and with the states as the situation becomes intolerable for the aviation sector, we read in the news for Airbus.

"The aim must be to find a compromise solution and to stop these punitive measures before it is too late," say company executives quoted in the press release.

"We have always believed that only a global solution would be adequate to solve the problem of aviation emissions."

Business leaders call for opening negotiations with the states concerned in the Aviation Organisation Organization (ICAO)

. In addition to Airbus, the letter implies managers of British Airways and Iberia, the two components of International Airlines Group, ¨ Air Berlin, Air France, Lufthansa, Virgin Atlantic, Safran and MTU Aero

.