France is committed to the path of deficit reduction
Posted by adminFrance begins to reduce its public deficit record next year to 6.0% of GDP end-2011, 7.7% after late 2010, according to the draft 2011 budget presented Wednesday.
This reduction would come from increased revenues due to an acceleration of economic growth to 2.0% in 2011, increased control of spending and a reduction of some 10 billion euros of tax loopholes.
"This is a historic budget. We are saying goodbye to years of budget increases," said budget minister Baroin, told reporters.
"6.0% in 2011 is a priority goal," he added."Crossing such a walk has never been seen in 50 years," he said in reference to the decline of 1.7 percent of GDP deficit expected next year.
The public debt will reach 86.2% of GDP at end 2011, 82.9% end 2010.The government deficit will be 92 billion in 2011.
The public deficit, which includes accounts of the State, corporate accounts and those of local communities, will then be reduced to 4.6% of GDP at end 2012, 3.0% and 2.0% end 2013 end 2014, according Law of Finance program presented at the same time as the budget on Wednesday by the Cabinet.
Public debt reaches 87.4% end of 2012 before declining to 86.8% and 85.3% end 2013 end 2014.
Between 2010 and 2013, when France regained the limit of 3.0% of the Maastricht Treaty, the deficit would be reduced to about 100 billion, which would be the most significant effort undertaken in the country for at least half a century.
"This budget is responsible, there is a balance between the reduced spending and preservation of the economic recovery," said Baroin.
REBOUND EXPECTED GROWTH
To reduce the deficit to 6%, the government expects growth of 2.0% in 2011 – higher than forecasts of almost all economists – from 1.5% in 2010.
"The forecast growth of 2% next year, it is really relatively confident", said Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.
The lower deficit targets will be achieved regardless cyclically and France wished, by a serious fiscal policy, provide advantageous financing of its debt markets, "she added.
"The deficit will not be the adjustment variable," said Christine Lagarde."Investors who finance and refinance our debt is extremely attentive to the fiscal consolidation", as rating agencies, "she added.
Through its policy, France would like the bonus requested on its debt relative to that of Germany remains in the lower part of the area from 30 to 55 basis points, "she said.
Other assumptions for 2011 are inflation to 1.5% growth in payroll by 2.9% (with 228,000 jobs created), a course of 1.30 euro / dollar, and an average price of Brent crude at $ 80.
UNCERTAINTIES
The trajectory of the deficit to 3% in 2013 is consistent with the commitments of the Stability Programme submitted in January by France to its European partners.
But economic and political uncertainties loom.
Economically, it is first projected growth (2% in 2011 and then 2.5% thereafter) that are considered too optimistic by analysts, which could force the government to take further measures if growth proved below.
As for political risk, they are related to the approach of presidential and legislative elections of 2012, a period generally not conducive to reducing deficits, especially as France had never before met the reduction targets deficit recorded in its stability programs.
"The figure of 2% growth is based on very optimistic assumptions, not only for 2011 but also for the 2.5% forecast in 2012 and 2013," said Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas.
"We believe that a government deficit of 6% is achievable but we must be aware that the government will take further steps to maintain the path they have announced."
According to Marie Diron, economist at Oxford Economics, "this is probably not going far enough.It may be sufficient for some time, but we believe that next year or the next budget, other measures are necessary to achieve these objectives. "
Tullia Bucco, economist at Unicredit, said she agreed that "the target of 2% growth seems difficult to achieve, which poses a risk to the government's ability to achieve its target of 6% deficit.
Bruno Cavalier, an economist at Oddo, "or it will do more to reduce structural costs, which would mean applying real austerity measures, or it must accept that we will fail to achieve the goal by 6%.
"If we pass a 7.7% deficit at 6% next year, it will be a reduction but the battle will be won so far," he added.
The review of the draft budget in open session will begin Oct. 18 in the National Assembly.