Archive for September, 2010

30
Sep

France is committed to the path of deficit reduction

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France begins to reduce its public deficit record next year to 6.0% of GDP end-2011, 7.7% after late 2010, according to the draft 2011 budget presented Wednesday.

This reduction would come from increased revenues due to an acceleration of economic growth to 2.0% in 2011, increased control of spending and a reduction of some 10 billion euros of tax loopholes.

"This is a historic budget. We are saying goodbye to years of budget increases," said budget minister Baroin, told reporters.

"6.0% in 2011 is a priority goal," he added."Crossing such a walk has never been seen in 50 years," he said in reference to the decline of 1.7 percent of GDP deficit expected next year.

The public debt will reach 86.2% of GDP at end 2011, 82.9% end 2010.The government deficit will be 92 billion in 2011.

The public deficit, which includes accounts of the State, corporate accounts and those of local communities, will then be reduced to 4.6% of GDP at end 2012, 3.0% and 2.0% end 2013 end 2014, according Law of Finance program presented at the same time as the budget on Wednesday by the Cabinet.

Public debt reaches 87.4% end of 2012 before declining to 86.8% and 85.3% end 2013 end 2014.

Between 2010 and 2013, when France regained the limit of 3.0% of the Maastricht Treaty, the deficit would be reduced to about 100 billion, which would be the most significant effort undertaken in the country for at least half a century.

"This budget is responsible, there is a balance between the reduced spending and preservation of the economic recovery," said Baroin.

REBOUND EXPECTED GROWTH

To reduce the deficit to 6%, the government expects growth of 2.0% in 2011 – higher than forecasts of almost all economists – from 1.5% in 2010.

"The forecast growth of 2% next year, it is really relatively confident", said Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.

The lower deficit targets will be achieved regardless cyclically and France wished, by a serious fiscal policy, provide advantageous financing of its debt markets, "she added.

"The deficit will not be the adjustment variable," said Christine Lagarde."Investors who finance and refinance our debt is extremely attentive to the fiscal consolidation", as rating agencies, "she added.

Through its policy, France would like the bonus requested on its debt relative to that of Germany remains in the lower part of the area from 30 to 55 basis points, "she said.

Other assumptions for 2011 are inflation to 1.5% growth in payroll by 2.9% (with 228,000 jobs created), a course of 1.30 euro / dollar, and an average price of Brent crude at $ 80.

UNCERTAINTIES

The trajectory of the deficit to 3% in 2013 is consistent with the commitments of the Stability Programme submitted in January by France to its European partners.

But economic and political uncertainties loom.

Economically, it is first projected growth (2% in 2011 and then 2.5% thereafter) that are considered too optimistic by analysts, which could force the government to take further measures if growth proved below.

As for political risk, they are related to the approach of presidential and legislative elections of 2012, a period generally not conducive to reducing deficits, especially as France had never before met the reduction targets deficit recorded in its stability programs.

"The figure of 2% growth is based on very optimistic assumptions, not only for 2011 but also for the 2.5% forecast in 2012 and 2013," said Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas.

"We believe that a government deficit of 6% is achievable but we must be aware that the government will take further steps to maintain the path they have announced."

According to Marie Diron, economist at Oxford Economics, "this is probably not going far enough.It may be sufficient for some time, but we believe that next year or the next budget, other measures are necessary to achieve these objectives. "

Tullia Bucco, economist at Unicredit, said she agreed that "the target of 2% growth seems difficult to achieve, which poses a risk to the government's ability to achieve its target of 6% deficit.

Bruno Cavalier, an economist at Oddo, "or it will do more to reduce structural costs, which would mean applying real austerity measures, or it must accept that we will fail to achieve the goal by 6%.

"If we pass a 7.7% deficit at 6% next year, it will be a reduction but the battle will be won so far," he added.

The review of the draft budget in open session will begin Oct. 18 in the National Assembly.

28
Sep

The social security deficit will reach 21.4 billion euros in 2011

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The deficit in the general scheme of social security will reach 21.4 billion euros in 2011 after 23.1 billion in 2010, announced Tuesday the budget minister, Francois Baroin.

The deficit of the disease will reach 11.6 billion euros in 2011 from 11.4 billion in 2010 and in the pension industry (pensions) 6.9 billion after 8.6.

The assumption of growth in payroll withholding for 2011 (2.9%) "represents a balance between optimism and caution," said Baroin, presenting to the press the bill financing of social security for 2011 .

The Health Minister, Roselyne Bachelot, has confirmed that the national target of spending (ONDAM) would be 2.9% in 2011 and a plan to save 2.4 billion euros for health insurance next year.

The Audit Board of Social Welfare had previously determined that a lesser deterioration of employment in 2010 would allow deficits to be below forecasts.

The deficit in the general scheme, which includes health insurance, pensions and family branches and accidents on the majority of private sector employees, would therefore be 23.2 billion euros at end-2010 instead of 26.8 billion provided last June, according to his report.

"The deficit of the general scheme will be lower in 2010 than had been expected in June, due to more favorable than anticipated employment and payroll," reads the report said the commission sent to Reuters.

GOOD NEWS FOR THE GOVERNMENT

The downward revision follows that of Unedic, agency manager of unemployment insurance, which provides for a deficit of 3.4 billion euros in 2010, instead of the 4.1 billion expected in April.

According to the Audit Board of Social Security, the deficit of the general $ 28.6 billion in 2011 if no new measures of savings was decided.

Improving financial statements this year is good news for the government because it will help reduce the government deficit which integrates them.

This will more easily reach the government target of reducing the government deficit of some 7.8% of GDP to 6.0% end 2010 end 2011 goal of the proposed 2011 budget to be presented Wednesday.

In 2010, the two main branches of the general system will degrade their accounts, pensions with a deficit of 8.6 billion euros from 7.2 in 2009 and health insurance deficit of 11.5 billion after 10, 6 in 2009, according to the Audit Board of Social Security.

The trend is to say, in the absence of corrective measures, these deficits will accelerate the next year to 10.5 billion euros and 14.5 billion.

27
Sep

EDF and Areva would work on a reconciliation

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EDF and Areva are currently working on a strategic alliance and have established six working groups to develop, "wrote Le Figaro on Monday.

The newspaper said Henri Proglio, CEO of EDF, and Anne Lauvergeon, CEO of Areva, met recently to discuss.

"The starting signal was given during the first half of September with a meeting between Henry and Anne Lauvergeon Proglio.Since then, six working groups were formed with, already, many exchanges, "the newspaper reported.

A spokesman for EDF declined to comment on this information immediately, while no one was immediately available for comment at Areva.

Le Figaro said that the working groups focus on the "fuel cycle", the "reactor services", the "feedback on reactor projects," "expanding the range of reactors," "l The organization offers reactors to international "and" capital of Areva."

"In the entourage of the nuclear group, although no formal voice was raised against the scenario of an entry of EDF, one wonders how other customers electricians Areva may be willing to see EDF's board of administration, "says Le Figaro.

For its part, the daily La Tribune also wrote Monday that the Elysium is "determined to strengthen 'the team of France's nuclear' climb by EDF to the tune of 10-15% stake in Areva."

To date, EDF controls 2.4% of Areva.

"Incidentally, the role of industrial Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, whose entrance to the capital of French group raises – again – the wrath of the boss of Alstom, Patrick Kron, could be lowered," wrote The Tribune.

According to the newspaper, redefining the boundaries of Areva could be an opportunity to revive the idea of a French mining hub that would collect the assets of Areva in the mines with those of Eramet.

The Minister of Ecology Jean-Louis Borloo said last week that he hoped a breakthrough in the case of EDF, Areva by the end of the year.

The possible rise in the capital of EDF, Areva and confirmation of its role as leader of the French nuclear intervene while EDF itself must carry out its nuclear projects in the United Kingdom and the United States while ensuring the proper operation of its fleet in France.

One analyst recently estimated that the strategic partnership between EDF and Areva imposed by the Elysee Palace may increase "political interference" in the electrician and "limit" his ability to choose other suppliers of nuclear reactors from Areva in some areas.

For its part, Areva would benefit from new financial resources thanks to EDF, the rise of the electrician be engaged in addition to a capital increase planned long in advance.

24
Sep

Ireland respond to an "attack" against the euro area

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Ireland will dam what it sees as a "concerted attack" against the euro area by cleaning up its finances to support a "remarkable reversal" of the economy, said Friday finance minister Brian Lenihan.

The premium investors demand to hold bonds Irish ten years rather than their German counterparts reached a new high since the introduction of the euro, to 451 basis points, following an unexpected contraction of the domestic product (GDP).

The Minister assured that Ireland will do its utmost to defend the euro market attacks that have arisen in his opinion the level "alarming" yields demanded by investors at the auction last Tuesday.

"There is a concerted attack against the euro area, there is a concentration against weaker nations," he told reporters.

The government's commitment to reduce the largest deficit in Europe by new expenditure cuts in the budget in December was again undermined on Friday when an independent member withdrew its support in protest against a reduction the health budget.

Analysts estimate that the deficit of Ireland, taking into account the cost of bank bailouts, could reach 25% of its GDP this year.

"Tax revenues are stabilizing, public spending is under control, our budget deficit will decline next year but the recovery is at a preliminary stage," said Brian Lenihan at a press conference.

NEW FORECAST THE NEXT MONTH

For the minister, the contraction of 1.2% of GDP and 0.3% of gross national product (GNP) in the second quarter may be interpreted as a sign of stabilization and a turnaround after a contraction of 11% of GNP 2009.

Ireland has borrowed enough to see it coming until mid-2011 and it is not facing a funding crisis, says Brian Lenihan.

"We will do all that is essential to protect the common currency and also to restore order in our economy," he said.

The Minister has agreed to review the budget targets if necessary.It will deliver new projections next month after having read the latest figures on debt, unemployment and the capital needs of the Anglo Irish bank nationalized.

The objective remains, however, reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014, he said.

"Neither markets nor our international partners in the European Union will not tolerate a deviation from our stated objectives," he told Brian Lenihan.

In Brussels, the European Commission estimated that the public finances of Ireland were under enormous pressure and observed that the government understood the gravity of the situation.

The boss of the Irish debt agency said on his part that concerns about banks' funding problems were exaggerated, adding that the authorities stood ready to intervene if necessary.

"We compare these fears in the year 2000 bug," said John Corrigan, director general of the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), "he said.

"We all thought the planes would drop, the trains would stop and the clock stopped working", he added.

23
Sep

The U.S. Congress wants to pass a law on the yuan

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Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives announced Wednesday their intention to include in the agenda a bill giving the U.S. government new tools to protect domestic companies against the yuan, accused of being under -valued.

This announcement comes on the eve of a meeting held in New York between President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

The head of the White House said Monday that China had not done enough to allow an appreciation of its currency, continuing the tough policy adopted by Washington vis-à-vis the exchange rate policy from Beijing.

"It is time for Congress to pass legislation that will give leverage to the administration in its bilateral and multilateral negotiations with the Chinese government," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a statement.

"If China allowed its currency to respond to market forces would create a million jobs in U.S. industry and reduce our trade deficit with China of 100 billion per year at no cost to the U.S. Treasury "she added.

In a speech to American businessmen in New York, the Chinese premier said that we should not politicize the issue and that the yuan's exchange rate had nothing to do with the U.S. trade deficit.

"The conditions of a sharp appreciation of the renminbi (yuan) do not exist," said Wen Jiabao.

The appreciation of Chinese currency demanded by the U.S. lawmakers would not create jobs in the United States because American companies no longer manufacture products that require significant manpower, he added.

EXPORT SUBSIDIES

The House should vote on the text next week, reported a wizard Democrat.

The prospect of a similar action in the Senate, which must also give its approval to the legislation, however, is more uncertain. Some senators felt that the timetable was too tight, many parliamentarians cash left Washington in a few weeks to leave to campaign for the midterm elections.

China's central bank has begun to change in June, announcing the abandonment of the bond linking the yuan to the dollar and allow the currency to move more freely.The yuan has advanced 1.8% against the dollar.

Critics of Beijing's foreign policy in Congress argue that China's undervalued by 25% to 40% of its currency, which gives Chinese firms an unfair advantage.

The yuan has become a prime target for politicians, eager to show its determination to fight for jobs in the prospect of elections on 2 November.

The legislation being proposed would consider the Chinese currency as "undervalued" and constitutes an export subsidy, which would allow the Commerce Department to impose countervailing duties.

21
Sep

Deutsche Bank would suffer a net loss in Q3

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Deutsche Bank announced Tuesday it would record a net loss probably in the third quarter, partly due to a charge of revaluation of 2.3 billion euros related to its stake of nearly 30% in Deutsche Postbank.

In addition, revenue and transaction products division of its corporate banking and securities have been in July and August seasonal settlements were "more marked than in the third quarter compared to 2009."

She added that the taxable profit for this division might be significantly lower than the comparable quarter last year.

Earlier, the German bank announced its bid for the 70% stake in Deutsche Postbank it would not have launched at a price of 25 euros per share.

To finance the transaction, Deutsche Bank has launched a capital increase which it announced Monday it would withdraw 10.2 billion euros.

The largest shareholder in Postbank is Deutsche Post, with 39.5% of the capital.

The Deutsche Bank share closed down 2.09% to 45.9 euros.

20
Sep

London prepares for the reform of the electricity market

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Britain is ready to reform its electricity market to encourage companies in the energy sector to invest the billions of pounds needed to produce electricity with low carbon emissions, including from Nuclear, said Sunday the British Secretary of State for Energy.

Chris Huhne told Reuters in an interview that the consultation on changes to the UK electricity market would begin later this year and that proposals would be published in spring 2011.

"(Consultation) must ensure that we put in place a framework that will produce energy with low emissions of carbon from whatever source to meet our needs over the next 10 years," he said margins of the annual conference of the Liberal Democratic Party taking place in Liverpool.

He added that the framework should be "stable, transparent and safe enough" to convince companies to invest energy and capital markets to finance them.

The regulator of energy, Ofgem has estimated at 200 billion pounds (240 billion) investment needed to ensure production and meet the goals relating to climate change.

"A VERY BIG JOB"

According to the authority, Great Britain will not succeed without changing the current system based on market arrangements and grants.

"We have a lot of work not only under the persuasion of energy companies to invest, but also the awareness of a wider investor base (pension funds, insurance companies) on the fact that s' acts of a wise investment for them, "said Chris Huhne.

He also believed that market reform and the planned introduction of a gradual increase in the tax on emissions of carbon dioxide, will be the driving forces behind the construction of new nuclear plants in Britain.

"Nuclear will be part of the energy supply," he said, adding that the level of development of nuclear energy groups and depend on the investor and not the government.

"My job is to establish the general framework to encourage lower carbon emissions.And then within that framework, it is the job of the investors to think this is their best option and that will determine the composition of supply (energy). "

Energy groups have called for an overhaul of the electricity market to remove the volatile costs of their production.

If they do not get more certainty, the companies said they will not invest the money to build new nuclear power plants or investing in storage technologies.

17
Sep

Poweo confirms its 2010 targets after a difficult semester

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Poweo Thursday confirmed its 2010 targets after reporting an operating loss dug under the first half.

The producer and distributor of electricity and gas estimates that its revenues should grow by more than 20% this year through the functioning of all full-year production assets, and expects an operating loss of between 20 and 30 million.

In the first six months of the year, the operating loss is part of Poweo 21.1 million, compared to 9.3 million a year earlier.The consolidated net loss stood at 29.7 million euros against 13.1 million while turnover rose 46.3% to 387.5 million.

In a statement, the company said that higher revenue comes mainly from the contribution of the Pont-sur-Sambre (Nord) which commissioning took place in September 2009.

"The strong increase in sales compared to retail customers in the first half of last year (86.6%) reflects the extension of the registered customer base throughout the year 2009," explains Poweo.

"Without non-recurring charges of EUR 17.8 million (…), The EBIT of Poweo would be close to equilibrium (in the first half, Ed), albeit with significant differences in performance by branch after partial allocation of structural costs, "the group.

To date, Poweo has an installed power of 517 MW including 105 MW of renewable energy.

The company relies on the expected rise in regulated prices for electricity sales to improve its margins and on the implementation of the future law NOME (New Organization of the electricity market), which must in particular enable farmers to energy to benefit from access price competitive production base of EDF.

An examination of the bill by the Senate NOME in late September.

15
Sep

The Dow Jones gained 0.44%, the Nasdaq is 0.50%

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Wall Street ended higher Wednesday after a meeting hesitant, as investors remained cautious in the absence of factor likely to support the trend.

The Dow Jones 30 industrials took 46.24 points, or 0.44%, to 10,572.73 points.The S & P 500 is broader, has advanced 3.97 points, or 0.35%, to 1125.07 points while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 11.55 points on his side (0.50%) to 2301 , 32 points.

The market had opened lower, reacting negatively to the publication of two indicators showing that the U.S. industry continues to lag behind.

Industrial production rose 0.2% in August, an increase in line with expectations that marks a slowdown compared to July, during which the production car had been unusually strong.

As the index of manufacturing activity in the State of New York, it appeared, dropping to a low unprecedented since July 2009.

The indices are, however, managed to erase their losses, the S & P bounced after passing under the moving average 200 days.

"There is not much conviction, either one way or the other and with such volatility, most investors prefer to keep their hands in their pockets," said Paul Nolte of Dearborn Partners in Chicago.

The technological and values related to energy have been abused during the meeting, the first because of comments from analysts pessimistic, the second in response to lower oil prices.

Micron Technology dropped 4.54% to 6.94 dollars after lowering the recommendation from Goldman Sachs, spent to "neutral" cons "buy".In its wake, the semiconductor index lost 0.34%.

The decline shown by crude prices in turn resulted in reduced stock prices related to energy.

Chevron has lost 0.37% to 79.21 dollars, while the S & P energy yielded 0.19%.

Kraft Foods, however, ended up on 1.73% to 31.59 dollars as investors greeted the announcement that the acquisition of Cadbury would bring one billion dollars in additional turnover and 750 million 'cost savings by 2013.

14
Sep

Airbus in China 5% buy parts for the A350

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Thomas Enders, Airbus president, announced Tuesday that the aircraft manufacturer had signed with two Chinese industrial agreements providing that 5% of A350 components come from China, which should represent 20% of its sales this year.

These two agreements, which should be formally announced Thursday, were signed with a joint venture in Chengdu and Harbin, he said in an interview with Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin.

"The Chinese market will be in 10 or 20 years the world's largest aviation market," he said."This year we will deliver approximately 20% of our total production in China."

The Airbus assembly line in Tianjin, which started production last year, production should reach 26 A320s this year and they will all be sold in China, "said Tom Enders payday loans.

The group said it targeted the assembly of four aircraft per month on this site, its first production site outside Europe by the end of 2011.

Tom Enders declined to comment on whether, ultimately, aircraft built in China could be devoted to export.

"It is too early to talk about this," he said. "He must first move here.We can perhaps take an interest in this question later. "

He also refused to talk about news reports that suggested in discussions to sell 150 planes to China. The official announcement could come during the visit of Chinese President in France, scheduled for later this month.