Weak retail sales in France since the beginning of the year raises concerns for household consumption, but without calling into question the prospect of a mild acceleration of growth in the second quarter.
INSEE said on Friday down 1.4% of household spending on manufactured goods in June after an increase (revised) 0.6% in May, which was only the second of the year.
Throughout the second quarter, they fell 0.9% after falling 1.9% in January-March.
Purchases of manufactured goods only represent about a fifth of consumer spending on goods and services, including food, a statistic that is much less volatile and released only on a quarterly basis.
Household consumption has stagnated in the first quarter and is still waiting INSEE stalled in second quarter net sales to be known on August 13 during the initial results of the national accounts.
Some economists, like Dominique Barbet from BNP Paribas, now does not preclude a decline in household consumption, which would be a first since the second quarter of 2008.
But, he says, the strength of industrial production and exports expected to "save" the growth in the second quarter, it expects to 0.4% or 0.5% after the meager 0.1% the first three months of the year.
"That said, the outlook is still quite weak and not with this level of consumption we can expect 1.5 to 2.0% growth per year," he adds.
Bercy, it remains serene by estimating it would take a 0.3% or more of household consumption to speak stall."Nothing like on the radar", make sure there in the entourage of the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde.
CONCERN FOR THE FUTURE
Regarding industrial production, it was not until August 10 to hear the numbers of the second quarter, but May's increase (+1.7% and +0.5% for the only manufacturing) was a good omen.
Already, the quarterly business survey released Friday by INSEE showed that the request to industry has made significant progress on these three months, but prospects are less favorable then.
"We had a sort of dichotomy between demand indicators that are not extraordinary, except perhaps for export, and offer those who are supported, as shown by surveys from INSEE" observes Dominique Barbet
He added: "The concern is more for the future."
Nick Kojucharov, Europe economist at Goldman Sachs, the link between low spending on manufactured goods and consumer confidence, which has faltered significantly since the beginning of the year.
"That does not mean that the recovery derailed in France – surveys and industrial production are trending up – but that French consumers, who strongly supported the request at the beginning of the recovery, now is the key" says he.
Down nine points since January, the consumer confidence indicator calculated by INSEE has stabilized at -39 in July, its lowest level since May 2009.
The decline in household spending in June is in large part to the launch late summer sales, June 30 instead of June 25 in 2009.
This contemplates an upward correction in July, but only temporarily according to economists.And anyway, "the fact that consumers have stopped buying clothes from three months to wait for the summer sales is not really what we might call a positive signal to private consumption, observes Olivier Gasnier of Societe Generale.
The high level of unemployment, worries about tax and the evolution of the purchasing power of households should continue to curb consumption, he adds.
If the support of replenishment orders and exports fades at the same time, the prospect of slower growth in the third quarter will be inevitable, confirming the slow recovery.
In its last forecast in June, Insee expecting 0.4% growth in the third and fourth quarter, after +0.5% in April-June, a pace sufficient to meet the government target of 1.4% on year.